The human respiratory tract hosts a diverse community of cocirculating viruses that are responsible for acute respiratory infections. This shared niche provides the opportunity for virus-virus interactions which have the potential to affect individual infection risks and in turn influence dynamics of infection at population scales. However, quantitative evidence for interactions has lacked suitable data and appropriate analytical tools. Here, we expose and quantify interactions among respiratory viruses using bespoke analyses of infection time series at the population scale and coinfections at the individual host scale. We analyzed diagnostic data from 44,230 cases of respiratory illness that were tested for 11 taxonomically broad groups of respiratory viruses over 9 y. Key to our analyses was accounting for alternative drivers of correlated infection frequency, such as age and seasonal dependencies in infection risk, allowing us to obtain strong support for the existence of negative interactions between influenza and noninfluenza viruses and positive interactions among noninfluenza viruses. In mathematical simulations that mimic 2-pathogen dynamics, we show that transient immune-mediated interference can cause a relatively ubiquitous common cold-like virus to diminish during peak activity of a seasonal virus, supporting the potential role of innate immunity in driving the asynchronous circulation of influenza A and rhinovirus. These findings have important implications for understanding the linked epidemiological dynamics of viral respiratory infections, an important step towards improved accuracy of disease forecasting models and evaluation of disease control interventions. epidemiology | virology | ecology

Vaccination-based exposure to spike protein derived from early SARS-CoV-2 sequences is the key public health strategy against COVID-19. Successive waves of SARS-CoV-2 infections have been characterised by the evolution of highly mutated variants that are more transmissible and that partially evade the adaptive immune response. Omicron is the fifth of these Variants of Concern (VOCs) and is characterised by a step change in transmission capability, suggesting significant antigenic and biological change. It is characterised by 45 amino acid substitutions, including 30 changes in the spike protein relative to one of the earliest sequences, Wuhan-Hu-1, of which 15 occur in the receptor-binding domain, an area strongly associated with humoral immune evasion. In this study, we demonstrate both markedly decreased neutralisation in serology assays and real-world vaccine effectiveness in recipients of two doses of vaccine, with efficacy partially recovered by a third mRNA booster dose. We also show that immunity from natural infection (without vaccination) is more protective than two doses of vaccine but inferior to three doses. Finally, we demonstrate fundamental changes in the Omicron entry process in vitro, towards TMPRSS2-independent fusion, representing a major shift in the replication properties of SARS-CoV-2. Overall, these findings underlie rapid global transmission and may alter the clinical severity of disease associated with the Omicron variant.

Public health preparedness for coronavirus (CoV) disease 2019 (COVID-19) is challenging in the absence of setting-specific epidemiological data. Here we describe the epidemiology of seasonal CoVs (sCoVs) and other cocirculating viruses in the West of Scotland, United Kingdom. We analyzed routine diagnostic data for >70 000 episodes of respiratory illness tested molecularly for multiple respiratory viruses between 2005 and 2017. Statistical associations with patient age and sex differed between CoV-229E, CoV-OC43, and CoV-NL63. Furthermore, the timing and magnitude of sCoV outbreaks did not occur concurrently, and coinfections were not reported. With respect to other cocirculating respiratory viruses, we found evidence of positive, rather than negative, interactions with sCoVs. These findings highlight the importance of considering cocirculating viruses in the differential diagnosis of COVID-19. Further work is needed to establish the occurrence/degree of cross-protective immunity conferred across sCoVs and with COVID-19, as well as the role of viral coinfection in COVID-19 disease severity.

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