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BackgroundLymph node (LN) metastasis is strongly associated with distant metastasis of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and indicates an adverse prognosis. Accurate LN-status prediction is essential for individualized treatment of patients with RCC and to help physicians make appropriate surgical decisions. Thus, a prediction model to assess the hazard index of LN metastasis in patients with RCC is needed.MethodsPartial data were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Data of 492 individuals with RCC, collected from the Southwest Hospital in Chongqing, China, were used for external validation. Eight indicators of risk of LN metastasis were screened out. Six machine learning (ML) classifiers were established and tuned, focused on predicting LN metastasis in patients with RCC. The models were integrated with big data analytics and ML algorithms. Based on the optimal model, we developed an online risk calculator and plotted overall survival using Kaplan–Meier analysis.ResultsThe extreme gradient-boosting (XGB) model was superior to the other models in both internal and external trials. The area under the curve, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity were 0.930, 0.857, 0.856, and 0.873, respectively, in the internal test and 0.958, 0.935, 0.769, and 0.944, respectively, in the external test. These parameters show that XGB has an excellent ability for clinical application. The survival analysis showed that patients with predicted N1 tumors had significantly shorter survival (p < 0.0001).ConclusionOur study shows that integrating ML algorithms and clinical data can effectively predict LN metastasis in patients with confirmed RCC. Subsequently, a freely available online calculator (https://xinglinyi.shinyapps.io/20221004-app/) was built, based on the XGB model.

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The accuracy of indices widely used to evaluate lung metastasis (LM) in patients with kidney cancer (KC) is insufficient. Therefore, we aimed at developing a model to estimate the risk of developing LM in KC based on a large population size and machine learning algorithms. Demographic and clinicopathologic variables of patients with KC diagnosed between 2004 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed. We performed a univariate logistic regression analysis to identify risk factors for LM in patients with KC. Six machine learning (ML) classifiers were established and tuned using the ten-fold cross-validation method. External validation was performed using clinicopathologic information from 492 patients from the Southwest Hospital, Chongqing, China. Algorithm performance was estimated by analyzing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, recall, F1 score, clinical decision analysis (DCA), and clinical utility curve (CUC). A total of 52,714 eligible patients diagnosed with KC were enrolled, of whom 2,618 developed LM. Variables of age, sex, race, T stage, N stage, tumor size, histology, and grade were identified as important for the prediction of LM. The extreme gradient boosting (XGB) algorithm performed better than other models in both the internal validation (AUC: 0.913, sensitivity: 0.873, specificity: 0.809, and F1 score: 0.325) and the external validation (AUC: 0.904, sensitivity: 0.750, specificity: 0.878, and F1 score: 0.364). This study established a predictive model for LM in KC patients based on ML algorithms which showed high accuracy and applicative value. A web-based predictor was built using the XGB model to help clinicians make more rational and personalized decisions.