The diverse impacts of anthropogenic climate change in the spatiotemporal distribution of global freshwater are generally addressed through global scale studies, which suffer from uncertainties arising from coarse spatial resolution. Multi-catchment, regional studies provide fine-grained details of these impacts but remain less explored. Here, we present a comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts on the hydrology of 19 river basins from different geographical and climatic conditions in South and Southeast Asia. We find that these two regions will get warmer (1.5 to 7.8 °C) and wetter (− 3.4 to 46.2%) with the expected increment in river flow (− 18.5 to 109%) at the end of the twenty-first century under climate change. An increase in seasonal hydro-climatic extremes in South Asia and the rising intensity of hydro-climatic extremes during only one season in Southeast Asia illustrates high spatiotemporal variability in the impact of climate change and augments the importance of similar studies on a larger scale for broader understanding.

Abstract. Water infrastructure development is considered necessary to drive economic growth in the Mekong region of mainland Southeast Asia. Yet the current understanding of hydrological and flood pattern changes associated with infrastructural development still contains several knowledge gaps, such as the interactions between multiple drivers, which may have serious implications for water management, agricultural production, and ecosystem services. This research attempts to conduct a cumulative assessment of basin-wide hydropower dam construction and irrigation expansion, as well as climate change, implications on discharge, and flood changes in the Cambodian Mekong floodplain. These floodplains offer important livelihoods for a considerable part of the 6.4 million people living on them, as they are among the most productive ecosystems in the world – driven by the annual flood pulse. To assess the potential future impacts, we used an innovative combination of three models: Mekong basin-wide distributed hydrological model IWRM-VMod, with the Mekong delta 1D flood propagation model MIKE-11 and 2D flood duration and extent model IWRM-Sub enabling detail floodplain modelling. We then ran scenarios to approximate possible conditions expected by around 2050. Our results show that the monthly and seasonal hydrological regimes (discharges, water levels, and flood dynamics) will be subject to substantial alterations under future development scenarios. Projected climate change impacts are expected to decrease dry season flows and increase wet season flows, which is in opposition to the expected alterations under development scenarios that consider both hydropower and irrigation. The likely impact of decreasing water discharge in the early wet season (up to −30 %) will pose a critical challenge to rice production, whereas the likely increase in water discharge in the mid-dry season (up to +140 %) indicates improved water availability for coping with drought stresses and sustaining environmental flows. At the same time, these changes would have drastic impacts on total flood extent, which is projected to decline by around 20 %, having potentially negative impacts on floodplain productivity and aquaculture, whilst reducing the flood risk to more densely populated areas. Our findings demonstrate the substantial changes that planned infrastructural development will have on the area, potentially impacting important ecosystems and people's livelihoods, calling for actions to mitigate these changes as well as planning potential adaptation strategies.

Abstract. Water infrastructure development is crucial for driving economic growth in the developing countries of the Mekong. Yet it may also alter existing hydrological and flood conditions, with serious implications for water management, agricultural production and ecosystem services, especially in the floodplain regions. Our current understanding of the hydrological and flood pattern changes associated with infrastructural development still contain several knowledge gaps, such as the consideration of overlooked prospective drivers, and the interactions between multiple drivers. This research attempts to conduct a cumulative impact assessment of flood changes in the Cambodian part of the Mekong floodplains. The developmental activity of six central sectors (hydropower, irrigation, navigation, flood protection, agricultural land use and water use) as well as climate change were considered in our modelling analysis. Our results show that the monthly, sub-seasonal, and seasonal hydrological regimes will be subject to substantial alterations under the 2020 planned development scenario, and even larger alterations under the 2040 planned development scenario. The degree of hydrological alteration under the 2040 planned development is somewhat counteracted by the effect of climate change, as well as the removal of mainstream dams in the Lower Mekong Basin and hydropower mitigation investments. The likely impact of decreasing water discharge in the early wet season (up to −34 %) will pose a critical challenge to rice production, whereas the likely increase in water discharge in the mid-dry season (up to +54 %) indicates improved water availability for coping with drought stresses and sustaining environmental flow. At the same time, these changes would have drastic impacts on total flood extent, which is projected to decline up to −18 %, having potentially negative impacts on floodplain productivity whilst at the same time reducing the flood risk to the area. Our findings urge the timely establishment of adaptation and mitigation strategies to manage such future environmental alterations in a sustainable manner.

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