This paper examines the relationship between foreign direct investment inflow, export and economic growth in Indonesia in a dynamic framework. We uses vector error correction model to estimate the causal relationship between FDI, exports and GDP. The findings in Indonesia’s case verify the proposition that FDI plays an important role which, in turn, together with joint FDI-exports can promote economic growth in the immediate short run and improve the competitiveness for Indonesia’s commodity exports. Nonetheless, the absence and existence of economic growth effects to FDI and exports respectively indicate that Indonesia still has several domestic economic constraints. It denotes that Indonesia’s economic structure is still transforming and far from adequate. Indonesia needs bold policies in order to accelerateits economic growth and further integrate trade chains for reducing domestic economic restrictions and improving Indonesia’s degree of competitiveness.

This paper aims to test the impact of uncertainty on the causal relationship among exports, imports, and economic growth in Indonesia. The relationship is constructed by examining the presence of FDI-adjusted exports and imports (trade) and the output link using conditional variances-covariances derived from the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) process in a vector error correction model (VEC-GARCH model). Using evidence in Indonesia, the model exposes the uni-directional nexus from trade performance to trade-adjusted output growth in the absence of uncertainty. The volatility effects are evident in the causal relationship between trade and output. The finding shows that the uncertainty effects hamper the trade-economic growth nexus. Incorporated with the long-run causality, trade still causes output even after containing the contributions of volatility. The significant role of imports highlights the higher demand for intermediate capital products and the inclusion of technology in strengthening economic growth.