Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered ~50% of global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing ~15% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions 1 – 3 . Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades 4 , 5 . Here, we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, we compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 (95% CI:0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests 6 . Thus, the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric CO 2 and air temperature 7 – 9 . Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our data suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including CO 2 , temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, while the Amazonian sink continues to rapidly weaken. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern hemisphere landmass 10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already saturated. This tropical forest sink saturation and ongoing decline has consequences for policies to stabilise Earth’s climate.

The proposed mechanism for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) offers significant potential for conserving forests to reduce negative impacts of climate change. Tanzania is one of nine pilot countries for the United Nations REDD Programme, receives significant funding from the Norwegian, Finnish and German governments and is a participant in the World Bank's Forest Carbon Partnership Facility. In combination, these interventions aim to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, provide an income to rural communities and conserve biodiversity. The establishment of the UN-REDD Programme in Tanzania illustrates real-world challenges in a developing country. These include currently inadequate baseline forestry data sets (needed to calculate reference emission levels), inadequate government capacity and insufficient experience of implementing REDD+-type measures at operational levels. Additionally, for REDD+ to succeed, current users of forest resources must adopt new practices, including the equitable sharing of benefits that accrue from REDD+ implementation. These challenges are being addressed by combined donor support to implement a national forest inventory, remote sensing of forest cover, enhanced capacity for measuring, reporting and verification, and pilot projects to test REDD+ implementation linked to the existing Participatory Forest Management Programme. Our conclusion is that even in a country with considerable donor support, progressive forest policies, laws and regulations, an extensive network of managed forests and increasingly developed locally-based forest management approaches, implementing REDD+ presents many challenges. These are being met by coordinated, genuine partnerships between government, non-government and community-based agencies.

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We determine the aboveground biomass and carbon storage (ABGC) of trees and the herbaceous layer in miombo woodland in the Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM) of Tanzania. In four 1-ha sample plots in Nyanganje and Kitonga Forests, we measured all trees ‡10 cm diameter alongside height and wood mass density. The plots contained an average of 20 tree species ha )1 (range 11-29) and 344 stems ha )1 (range 281-382) with Shannon diversity values of 1.05 and 1.25, respectively. We weighted nine previously published woody savannah allometric models based on whether: (i) the model was derived from the same geographical region; (ii) the model included tree height ⁄wood mass density in addition to stem diameter; and (iii) sample size was used to fit the model. The weighted mean ABGC storage from the nine models range from 13.5 ± 2 to 29.8 ± 5 Mg ha )1 . Measured ABGC storage in the herbaceous layer, using the wet combustion method, adds 0.55 ± 0.02 Mg C ha )1 . Estimates suggest that EAM miombo woodlands store a range of 13-30 Mg ha )1 of carbon. Although the estimates suggest that miombo woodlands store significant quantities of carbon, caution is required as this is the first estimate based on in situ data. RésuméNous déterminons le stock de biomasse de carbone aérien (C abg ) dans les arbres et dans la couche herbacée de la forêt Ó

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