Predictions from science and engineering models depend on several input parameters. Global sensitivity analysis quantifies the importance of each input parameter, which can lead to insight into the model and reduced computational cost; commonly used sensitivity metrics include Sobol' total sensitivity indices and derivative-based global sensitivity measures. Active subspaces are an emerging set of tools for identifying important directions in a model's input parameter space; these directions can be exploited to reduce the model's dimension enabling otherwise infeasible parameter studies. In this paper, we develop global sensitivity metrics called activity scores from the active subspace, which yield insight into the important model parameters. We mathematically relate the activity scores to established sensitivity metrics, and we discuss computational methods to estimate the activity scores. We show two numerical examples with algebraic functions taken from simplified engineering models. For each model, we analyze the active subspace and discuss how to exploit the low-dimensional structure. We then show that input rankings produced by the activity scores are consistent with rankings produced by the standard metrics.

A modified, deterministic SEIR model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemic occurring in the West African nations of Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The model describes the dynamical interaction of susceptible and infected populations, while accounting for the effects of hospitalization and the spread of disease through interactions with deceased, but infectious, individuals. Using data from the World Health Organization (WHO), parameters within the model are fit to recent estimates of infected and deceased cases from each nation. The model is then analyzed using these parameter values. Finally, several metrics are proposed to determine which of these nations is in greatest need of additional resources to combat the spread of infection. These include local and global sensitivity metrics of both the infected population and the basic reproduction number with respect to rates of hospitalization and proper burial.

In the field of uncertainty quantification, sparse polynomial chaos (PC) expansions are commonly used by researchers for a variety of purposes, such as surrogate modeling. Ideas from compressed sensing may be employed to exploit this sparsity in order to reduce computational costs. A class of greedy compressed sensing algorithms use least squares minimization to approximate PC coefficients. This least squares problem lends itself to the theory of optimal design of experiments (ODE). Our work focuses on selecting an experimental design that improves the accuracy of sparse PC approximations for a fixed computational budget. We propose DSP, a novel sequential design, greedy algorithm for sparse PC approximation. The algorithm sequentially augments an experimental design according to a set of the basis polynomials deemed important by the magnitude of their coefficients, at each iteration. Our algorithm incorporates topics from ODE to estimate the PC coefficients. A variety of numerical simulations are performed on three physical models and manufactured sparse PC expansions to provide a comparative study between our proposed algorithm and other non-adaptive methods. Further, we examine the importance of sampling by comparing different strategies in terms of their ability to generate a candidate pool from which an optimal experimental design is chosen. It is demonstrated that the most accurate PC coefficient approximations, with the least variability, are produced with our design-adaptive greedy algorithm and the use of a studied importance sampling strategy. We provide theoretical and numerical results which show that using an optimal sampling strategy for the candidate pool is key, both in terms of accuracy in the approximation, but also in terms of constructing an optimal design.

No abstract

Department of Energy (DOE) reports produced after 1991 and a growing number of pre-1991 documents are available free via www.OSTI.gov.