Monetary policy affects activity, and ultimately inflation, in a number of ways. The most important of these is generally considered to be through the effect of interest rates directly on the demand for goods by households and firms. However, monetary policy can also influence activity through its impact on the value of assets that, in turn, will influence the behaviour of households and firms; e.g. by changing wealth and, through an impact on balance sheets, borrowing costs. Recent financial market developments may have made these effects of monetary policy more important but at the same time less easy to predict. In particular, the size of financial markets has risen relative to activity and readily tradable assets are becoming increasingly important relative to other financial assets. Prices of such assets tend to be sensitive to shifts in market expectations about the future course of general economic developments and in particular interest rates. With these changing financial ... La politique monétaire influe sur l’activité, et finalement sur l’inflation, de plusieurs manières. On considère généralement que la plus importante est celle qui affecte directement la demande de biens des ménages et des entreprises à travers les taux d'intérêt. Cependant, la politique monétaire peut aussi influencer l’activité par son impact sur la valeur des actifs qui à son tour influencera le comportement des ménages et entreprises ; par exemple en changeant la richesse et, au travers de sa répercussion sur le bilan, les coûts des emprunts. Les récents développements du marché financier peuvent avoir rendu ces effets de la politique monétaire plus importants mais en même temps moins faciles à prévoir. En particulier, la taille des marchés financiers s’est accrue par rapport à l’activité, et des biens facilement négociables ont pris de plus en plus d’importance par rapport aux autres biens financiers. Les prix de tels biens tendent à être sensibles aux changements sur les ...gradualism, wealth effects, monetary transmission mechanism, balance sheet effect, mécanisme de transmission monétaire, effet de patrimoine, effet de bilan, gradualisme

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The following symbols have been used throughout this paper: ... to indicate that data are not available; -to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist; between years or months (e.g., 1991-92 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; / between years (e.g., 1991/92) to indicate a crop or fiscal (financial) year. "Billion" means a thousand million.Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.The term "country," as used in this paper, does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice; the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states, but for which statistical data are maintained and provided internationally on a separate and independent basis. CONTENTS vi©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution PrefaceThis Occasional Paper takes stock of Poland's experience with the transition to a market economy some four to five years into the process. IMF staff have been involved in this process from the outset under the leadership of Massimo Russo during the initial liberalization and stabilization phase associated with a 1990 standby arrangement with the IMF; Peter Hole for the 1990-91 period leading up to a Paris Club debt and debt-service reduction operation and an associated extended Fund facility with the IMF; and Michael Deppler since then. Many other staff members have contributed along the way, notably the two Senior Resident Representatives, Mark Allen (1990-93) and Markus Rodlauer (1993-present).Too many individuals have assisted with, and offered valuable comments on, the various drafts of the sections to be mentioned here. However, the authors would like to thank Robert Sierhej for his assistance in obtaining data and Sepideh Khazai for her valuable research assistance. The authors are also indebted to Patricia Emerson and Indra Perera for their extensive secretarial support. J.R. Morrison of the External Relations Department edited the paper for publication and coordinated production.The views expressed here, as well as any errors, are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Government of the Republic of Poland, the Executive Directors of the IMF, or other members of the IMF staff.Except where otherwise indicated, the paper reflects information available through March 1994. vii ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution I Overview Liam P. Ebrill Real GDP (percent change) Consumer prices (percent change) General government balance (in percent of GDP) Current account

81489 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origineComplete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP(99)15 2 ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉIn a new and changing environment for monetary policy, an interesting issue to examine is the use of financial market indicators by monetary policy authorities. With this in mind, the OECD canvassed a number of major central banks to get their views. This paper presents a synthesis of the responses and respects the confidentiality of individual central banks. Its main conclusions are as follows. In principle, financial market variables can provide additional information regarding the shocks that strike the economy, such as their perceived size and source as well as the process of feeding through the economy. A complementary function is to gauge market anticipations and reactions to policy changes, including the credibility of policy objectives. Regarding policy setting, monetary authorities are clearly aware of the dangers of mechanically targeting this information, which could lead to circularities. However, in some cases, they seem to find financial market indicators useful in evaluating policy credibility and in making tactical decisions. The most serious disadvantage of these indicators is the difficulty in disentangling their information content. Moreover, the relationships between them and the final target variables are sometimes poor, and financial markets tend to overreact to news and are thus subject to herding and potentially to speculative bubbles. In sum, the information can be highly distorted by various time-varying risk premia and, accordingly, the progress in understanding them has been limited, leaving a large judgmental role to the monetary authorities. Use of these data varies among monetary authorities and, overall, they are still feeling their way regarding the role for these newer financial market indicators. JEL classification: E50, 358, G14Keywords: monetary policy indicators, central bank policies, financial market indicators ***** Dans un environnement de politique monétaire nouveau et en pleine évolution, il nous a semblé intéressant d'examiner l'usage que les autorités de la politique monétaire font des indicateurs du marché financier. C'est dans cette optique que l'OCDE a sollicité l'avis d'un certain nombre de grandes banques centrales. Ce document présente une synthèse de l'ensemble de leurs opinions, tout en respectant la confidentialité de chacune d'entre elles, dont les principales conclusions sont les suivantes. En principe, les variables concernant le marché financier peuvent fournir des informations supplémentaires en ce qui concerne les secousses qui frappent l'économie, en ce sens qu'elles en perçoivent l'ampleur, la source aussi bien que les répercussions sur le système économique. Une de leurs fonctions complémentaires est d'évaluer les anticipations du marché et les réactions aux changements de politique, ainsi que la crédibilité des objectifs politiques. Bien que les autorités monétaires soient pleinement conscient...

77882 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d'origineComplete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP(99)7 2 ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉWithout further reforms, pay-as-you-go pension systems throughout most of continental Europe face unsustainable financial imbalances as their population ages. Though this paper describes the Greek pension system, which will face especially severe financial strains, it sheds light on the pension problems of other continental European countries, as these countries' systems share many common features. The main focus of the paper is on the factors of the Greek pay-as-you-go system which result in its future unsustainability. Exacerbating the deteriorating demographics, the system is characterised by very generous pensions relative to contributions for the pre-1993 generation of workers, as well as other incentives/provisions to retire early. To highlight these facets, the study provides simulations of the generosity of different categories of individual pensions under different scenarios as well as projections of aggregate pension expenditures and revenues. It concludes with options for reform. ********** S'ils ne font pas l'objet de réformes supplémentaires, les systèmes de retraite par répartition de la plupart des pays d'Europe continentale vont être confrontés à des déséquilibres financiers non viables dus au vieillissement de la population. Ce document décrit le système grec de retraite qui va devoir faire face à des difficultés financières particulièrement importantes. Cependant il expose aussi les problèmes des systèmes de pension des autres pays d'Europe continentale puisque ces régimes ont de nombreuses caractéristiques communes. Le document analyse principalement les éléments du système grec de retraite par répartition qui conduiront à sa non-viabilité future. Outre l'évolution démographique défavorable, le système se caractérise par la générosité des pensions au regard des cotisations pour les travailleurs entrés dans la population active avant 1993, ainsi que par d'autres incitations/dispositifs qui favorisent les départs en retraite anticipée. Pour mettre en évidence ces caractéristiques, l'étude présente des simulations qui font état de la générosité des différentes catégories de pensions individuelles, suivant différents scénarios, ainsi que des projections des dépenses et des recettes du système de pension. Elle se termine par des propositions de réformes.