Increasing temperatures will make space cooling a necessity for maintain comfort and protecting human health, and rising income levels will allow more people to purchase and run air conditioners. Here we show that, in Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico income and humidity-adjusted temperature are common determinants for adopting air-conditioning, but their relative contribution varies in relation to household characteristics. Adoption rates are higher among households living in higher quality dwellings in urban areas, and among those with higher levels of education. Air-conditioning is unevenly distributed across income levels, making evident the existence of a disparity in access to cooling devices. Although the adoption of air-conditioning could increase between twofold and sixteen-fold by 2040, from 64 to 100 million families with access to electricity will not be able to adequately satisfy their demand for thermal comfort. The need to sustain electricity expenditure in response to higher temperatures can also create unequal opportunities to adapt.

Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today’s global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.

Universal access to electricity is deemed critical for improving living standards and indispensable for eradicating poverty and achieving sustainable development. In 2003, the 'Luz para Todos' (LpT-Light for All) program was launched aiming to universalize access to electricity in Brazil. The program focused on rural and isolated areas, also targeting to bring development to those regions along with electrification. This paper evaluates the results of the LpT program in improving socio-economic development in the poorest regions of Brazil. After an initial qualitative analysis, an empirical quantitative assessment of the influence of increased electrification rates on the components of the Human Development Index (HDI) is performed. The empirical results of this study showed that electrification had a positive influence on all dimensions of the HDI, with the education component having the strongest effect. Although complementary policies were needed to achieve this, results show that electricity access is a major requirement to improve quality of life.

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Air Conditioning (AC) appliances are a highly effective adaptation strategy to rising temperatures, thus making future climate conditions an important driver of space cooling energy demand. The main goal of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on Cooling Degree Days computed with wetbulb temperature (CDD wb ) and household space cooling demand in Brazil. We compare the needs under three specific warming levels (SWLs) scenarios (1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C) to a baseline with historically observed meteorological parameters by combining CDD wb projections with an end-use model to evaluate the energy requirements of air conditioning. The effects of the climate change were isolated, and no future expansion in AC ownership considered. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions associated with AC energy demand are also calculated. Results show an increase in both average CDD wb and AC electricity consumption for the global warming scenarios in all Brazilian regions. The Northern region shows the highest increase in CDD wb (187% in CDD wb for SWL 4°C), while the Southeast presents the highest AC energy consumption response (326% in the AC energy consumption for SWL 4°C) compared to the baseline. At the national level, CDD wb and the AC energy consumption in all SWLs scenarios grow by 70%, 99% and 190%, respectively.