Impacts of a warmer world on space cooling demand in Brazilian households

Abstract

Air Conditioning (AC) appliances are a highly effective adaptation strategy to rising temperatures, thus making future climate conditions an important driver of space cooling energy demand. The main goal of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on Cooling Degree Days computed with wetbulb temperature (CDD wb ) and household space cooling demand in Brazil. We compare the needs under three specific warming levels (SWLs) scenarios (1.5°C, 2°C and 4°C) to a baseline with historically observed meteorological parameters by combining CDD wb projections with an end-use model to evaluate the energy requirements of air conditioning. The effects of the climate change were isolated, and no future expansion in AC ownership considered. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions associated with AC energy demand are also calculated. Results show an increase in both average CDD wb and AC electricity consumption for the global warming scenarios in all Brazilian regions. The Northern region shows the highest increase in CDD wb (187% in CDD wb for SWL 4°C), while the Southeast presents the highest AC energy consumption response (326% in the AC energy consumption for SWL 4°C) compared to the baseline. At the national level, CDD wb and the AC energy consumption in all SWLs scenarios grow by 70%, 99% and 190%, respectively.

Air-conditioning and the adaptation cooling deficit in emerging economies

“…Although we do not observe the specific consumption of electricity for space cooling, we know the total electricity consumption of households. Not only can air-conditioning be reasonably assumed to be more sensitive to changes in temperature than other final usages, but it is also much more energy-intensive compared to fans 32 . Most of the factors that positively influence the adoption of air-conditioning adoption—CDDs, income, urbanization, education, home ownership and housing index—are also positively related to electricity consumption (Supplementary Table 9 ).…”

Cooling Degree Models and Future Energy Demand in the Residential Sector. A Seven-Country Case Study

“…Similarly, based on findings from the literature [23,72,73,79,82], this is very likely to increase the adoption of air conditioning and energy consumption in the summer, especially in southern European countries. Nevertheless, these changes might not be as significant as the expected impacts of other factors (e.g., household size, income, electricity prices, occupant thermal comfort patterns, socio-economic particularities) [29]. Therefore, interpretation of results in that regard should be cautious.…”

“…In this respect, it is important to understand how different models (CDD or CDH, fixed or adaptive thermal comfort temperature thresholds) affect the projected scenarios on temperature change and, consequently, residential cooling demand to ultimately recommend suitable actions towards mitigation adaptation of the built environment. Furthermore, this type of analysis sheds light on the nexus between building standards and cooling demand increase, addressing the need to improve the energy efficiency of existing building stock as an instrument to address climate warming, greenhouse gas emissions, and cooling demand increase [28,29].…”

Income-dependent expansion of electricity demand for climate change adaptation in Brazil

“…CDDswet make it possible to account for relative humidity, in addition to temperature [40,16]. Monthly CDDsdry are computed by using a threshold of 24 • C, which is the value typically associated with the thermal comfort of tropical countries [41,16]. CDDs wet by definition are lower in magnitude compared to CDDs dry , and equal when rh=100%, i.e., when both dry-and wet-bulb temperature are equal (see Mistry et al [42] and Pavanello et al [16], for further details).…”