The analysis of the current state of weather and climatic conditions and evaluation of their predicted changes for immediate and distant prospect in the drained areas of Ukrainian Polissia region was carried out in the article. The main trends in changes of meteorological characteristics and their possible effect on the conditions of functioning water management and ameliorative objects and complexes as well as on the natural and ameliorative state of drained areas were identified. The research uses a method of predictive-simulation modelling with used predictive assessment models of normalized distribution of the basic meteorological characteristics in the long-term and one-year vegetation context. According to the results of the research it was established that, for today a high variability in meteorological characteristics can lead to the significant deterioration of operation conditions of water management and ameliorative objects and units, as well as natural and ameliorative conditions of drained lands in Polissia region as a whole. Core measures regarding the adaptive potential enhancement and development in the region under the conditions of climate change were examined.
The existing drainage systems in Polesia have exhausted their resource and need reconstruction and modernization to improve the overall technological, economic and environmental efficiency of their operation.To study the influence of the main factors of variation of the distance between the drains methods of statistical modeling and the probability theory are used, which developed a mathematical model for determining standard deviation determining factor of the investigated function. According to the results of the studies, it was found that the drainage flow module characterizing the intensity of soil and territory drainage is formed mainly due to the values of the drainage speed, filtration coefficient and the time of excess water drainage and has a significant impact on the distance between the drains, which is 86-98 %. Based on the simulation for the conditions of Ukrainian Polesia dynamics and the average weighted modules in drainage outflow under different weather and climatic conditions for growing different crops on different soils, the considerable variability of their values in time and space are obtained, the normalized curves constructed security module drainage outflow for the main arable crops on mineral and peat soils. The obtained results convincingly show that both current and average values of the drainage flow modulus in the studied conditions have a pronounced variability in climatic conditions, the type of crops grown and the type of soil. With its value for the selected key factors the drainage system substantially differs primarily from the maximum current values and values during the vegetation period calculated from accepted values by more than a few times, what determines the need to take account of this designing reconstruction projects, construction and operation of such facilities.
In the article we developed the design principles and implementation of a complex model and optimized the design parameters of drainage. The study was based on the implementation of interconnected structural and technological forecasting simulation and optimization model blocks, which in turn allowed to justify the optimal design parameters and drainage considering multiple natural and agronomic conditions and reclamation facilities. Example of evaluating the performance of drainage on drained lands was made for the conditions of a real project, implemented on lands of agricultural holding “May Day” located within of drainage system “Ikva” in the Rivne region. For the object conditions (average decade formation conditions of the drainage flow module for growing perennial grasses, winter cereals and potatoes) the estimated duration of the growing season was 214 days (100%), of which the total duration of drainage was 60% and included different levels of efficiency: 39% – ecological, 15.5% – technological and 5.5% – economic. The duration of its critical operations (forming module drainage flow exceeds the design of its value) does not exceed 5%. Thus, this approach enables the assessment of drainage with predetermined or specified parameters in the construction or renovation of drainage systems on different levels of effectiveness. It can be effectively used in the overall complex predictive and optimization calculations to substantiate the design and parameters of agricultural drainage, taking into account the variability of natural agrotechnical and reclamation conditions of a real object.
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