Summary Background Elevated blood pressure and glucose, serum cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI) are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs); some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and diabetes. We estimated CVD, CKD, and diabetes mortality attributable to these four cardio-metabolic risk factors for all countries and regions between 1980 and 2010. Methods We used data on risk factor exposure by country, age group, and sex from pooled analysis of population-based health surveys. Relative risks for cause-specific mortality were obtained from pooling of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions (PAF) for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multi-causality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific PAFs by the number of disease-specific deaths from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all inputs to the final estimates. Findings In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for dying from CVDs, CKD, and diabetes in every region, causing over 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths; and cholesterol for 10%. After accounting for multi-causality, 63% (10.8 million deaths; 95% confidence interval 10.1–11.5) of deaths from these diseases were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7.1 million deaths; 6.6–7.6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled between 1980 and 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates attributable to these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100,000 among men in Belarus, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan, but were below 130 deaths per 100,000 for women and below 200 for men in some high-income countries like Japan, Singapore, South Korea, France, Spain, The Netherlands, Australia, and Canada. Interpretations The salient features of the cardio-metabolic epidemic at the beginning of the twenty-first century are the large role of high blood pressure and an increasing impact of obesity and diabetes. There has been a shift in the mortality burden from high-income to low- and middle-income countries.

Herd immunity blocks the transmission of measles, mumps and rubella in a population group when the prevalence of positive serologic results (p) is higher than a critical value (p c), known as the herd immunity threshold. A new preventive strategy should be developed in order to achieve the elimination of measles, rubella and mumps in Europe based on the serological assessment of herd immunity levels in different population groups. This strategy could detect population groups without herd immunity (p < p c) and indicate the additional vaccination coverage required in these groups in order to establish herd immunity and prevent outbreaks. The serological assessment of herd immunity levels in Catalonia, Spain, showed that herd immunity had not been established for measles and mumps in schoolchildren (5-9 years of age) and youths/younger adults (15-29 years of age), and that the additional vaccination coverage required to establish herd immunity in these groups was 1-7%. The new preventive strategy should be used to detect priority population groups for preventive and surveillance activities in European countries.

Serological surveys and the critical prevalence of antibodies can be used to assess the establishment of herd immunity for vaccine-preventable diseases in different population groups, indicating to which of them immunization activities should be prioritized.

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Non-immune neonates and non-immune pregnant women are at risk of developing rubella, measles and mumps infections, including congenital rubella syndrome. We describe the seroepidemiology of measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) in neonates and pregnant women in Catalonia (Spain). Anti-rubella, anti-measles and anti-mumps serum IgG titres were assessed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests in 353 cord blood samples from neonates of a representative sample of pregnant women obtained in 2013. The prevalence of protective antibody titres in neonates was 96 % for rubella IgG (≥8 IU/ml), 90 % for measles IgG (>300 IU/ml) and 84 % for mumps IgG (>460 EU/ml). Slightly lower prevalences of protective IgG titres, as estimated from the cord blood titres, were found in pregnant women: 95 % for rubella IgG, 89 % for measles IgG and 81 % for mumps IgG. The anti-measles and anti-mumps IgG titres and the prevalences of protective IgG titres against measles and mumps increased significantly (p < 0.001) with maternal age. The prevalence of protective anti-measles IgG titres decreased by 7 % [odds ratio (OR) = 0.15, p < 0.001), the prevalence of protective anti-rubella IgG titres increased by 3 % (OR = 1.80, p < 0.05) and the MMR vaccination coverage (during childhood) in pregnant women increased by 54 % (OR = 2.09, p < 0.001) from 2003 to 2013. We recommend to develop an MMR prevention programme in women of childbearing age based on mass MMR vaccination or MMR screening and vaccination of susceptible women to increase immunity levels against MMR.