BackgroundSeasonal influenza epidemics occur annually with bimodality in southern China and unimodality in northern China. Regional differences exist in surveillance data collected by the National Influenza Surveillance Network of the Chinese mainland. Qualitative and quantitative analyses on the spatiotemporal rules of the influenza virus's activities are needed to lay the foundation for the surveillance, prevention and control of seasonal influenza.MethodsThe peak performance analysis and Fourier harmonic extraction methods were used to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics of the seasonal influenza virus activity and to obtain geographic divisions. In the first method, the concept of quality control was introduced and robust estimators were chosen to make the results more convincing. The dominant Fourier harmonics of the provincial time series were extracted in the second method, and the VARiable CLUSter (VARCLUS) procedure was used to variably cluster the extracted results. On the basis of the above geographic division results, three typical districts were selected and corresponding sinusoidal models were applied to fit the time series of the virological data.ResultsThe predominant virus during every peak is visible from the bar charts of the virological data. The results of the two methods that were used to obtain the geographic divisions have some consistencies with each other and with the virus activity mechanism. Quantitative models were established for three typical districts: the south1 district, including Guangdong, Guangxi, Jiangxi and Fujian; the south2 district, including Hunan, Hubei, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang; and the north district, including the 14 northern provinces except Qinghai. The sinusoidal fitting models showed that the south1 district had strong annual periodicity with strong winter peaks and weak summer peaks. The south2 district had strong semi-annual periodicity with similarly strong summer and winter peaks, and the north district had strong annual periodicity with only winter peaks.

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Abstract:Revealing forest drought response characteristics and the potential impact factors is quite an important scientific issue against the background of global climate change, which is the foundation to reliably evaluate and predict the effects of future drought. Due to the high spatial heterogeneity of forest properties such as biomass, forest age, and height, and the distinct differences in drought stress in terms of frequency, intensity, and duration, current studies still contain many uncertainties. In this research, we used the forests in Yunnan Province in Southwest China as an example and aimed to reveal the potential impacts of forest properties (i.e., stock volume) on drought response characteristics. Specifically, we divided the forest into five groups of stock volume density values and then analyzed their drought response differences. To depict forest response to drought intensity, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was chosen as the explanatory variable, and the change in remote sensing-based enhanced vegetation index (deficit of MODIS-EVI, dEVI) was chosen as the response variable of drought stress. Given that the SPEI has different time scales, we first analyzed the statistical dependency of SPEIs with different time scales (1 to 36 months) to the response variable (i.e., dEVI). The optimal time scale of SPEI (SPEI opt ) to interpret the maximum variation of dEVI (R-square) was then chosen to build the ultimate statistical models for the five groups of stock volume density. The main findings were as follows: (1) the impacts of drought showed hysteresis and cumulative effects, and the length of the hysteresis increased with stock volume densities; (2) forests with high stock volume densities required more soil water and were therefore more sensitive to the changes in water deficit; (3) compared with the optimal time scale of SPEI (SPEI opt ), the SPEI with the commonly used time scale (e.g., 1, 6, and 12 months) could not well reflect the impacts of drought on forests and the simulation error of dEVI increased with stock volume densities; and (4) forests with higher stock volume densities were likely to experience a greater risk of degradation following higher atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5). As a result, both the time scale of the meteorological drought index and the spatial difference in forest stock volumes should be considered when evaluating forest drought responses at regional and global scales.