The recurrence rate after a symptomatic DVT is high. Patients with proximal DVT, diagnosed cancer, short duration of oral anticoagulation therapy, or a history of thromboembolic events had a higher risk of recurrent events, while patients with postoperative DVT had a lower recurrence rate. This knowledge could help identify patients who might benefit most from prolonged prophylactic treatment in various risk situations.

Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40–69 years in Europe. Methods and results  We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65–0.68) to 0.81 (0.76–0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low-risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion  SCORE2—a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations—enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

See also Tosetto A. Association or causation: the Janus face of observational research. This issue, pp 555-7.Summary. Background: The link between psychosocial factors and coronary heart disease is well established, but although effects on coagulation and fibrinolysis variables may be implicated, no population-based study has sought to determine whether venous thromboembolism is similarly related to psychosocial factors. Objective: To determine whether venous thromboembolism (deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism) is related to psychosocial factors. Patients/methods: A stress questionnaire was filled in by 6958 men at baseline from 1970 to 1973, participants in a cardiovascular intervention trial. Their occupation was used to determine socio-economic status. Results: After a maximum follow-up of 28.8 years, 358 cases of deep vein thrombosis and/or pulmonary embolism were identified through the Swedish hospital discharge and cause-specific death registries. In comparison with men who, at baseline, had no or moderate stress, men with persistent stress had increased risk of pulmonary embolism [hazard ratio (HR)=1.80, 95% CI: 1.21-2.67]. After multivariable adjustment, the HR decreased slightly to 1.66 (95% CI: 1.12-2.48). When compared with manual workers, men with white-collar jobs at intermediate or high level and professionals showed an inverse relationship between occupational class and pulmonary embolism (multiple-adjusted HR=0.57, 95% CI: 0.39-0.83). Deep vein thrombosis was not significantly related to either stress or occupational class. Conclusion: Both persistent stress and low occupational class were independently related to future pulmonary embolism. The mechanisms are unknown, but effects on coagulation and fibrinolytic factors are likely.

Background-Interest in bundle-branch block has focused primarily on its role as a predictor of mortality and coexisting cardiovascular diseases. Previous studies of prevalence, correlation to cardiovascular disease, and mortality have produced conflicting results. Methods and Results-We studied a random-sampled population of 855 men who were 50 years old in 1963 and followed them up for 30 years with repeated examinations. Men who developed bundle-branch block were studied with regard to cumulative incidence, relationship with cardiovascular disease/risk factors, and survival. The prevalence of bundle-branch block increases from 1% at age 50 years to 17% at age 80 years, resulting in a cumulative incidence of 18%. No significant relationship with ischemic heart disease or mortality was found. Men who would develop bundle-branch block had a bigger heart volume at age 50 years and developed diabetes mellitus and congestive heart disease during follow-up more often than control subjects. Conclusions-Bundle-branch block correlates strongly to age and is common in elderly men. Our results support the theory that bundle-branch block is a marker of a slowly progressing degenerative disease that also affects the myocardium.(Circulation. 1998;98:2494-2500.)

Clinical tests used during the first week after stroke onset can, to some extent, identify those patients at risk of falling during the first year after stroke.