Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale 'tipping point' highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions. It is also necessary to address root causes of how humans are forcing biological changes.

Studies of the end-Permian mass extinction have emphasized potential abiotic causes and their direct biotic effects. Less attention has been devoted to secondary extinctions resulting from ecological crises and the effect of community structure on such extinctions. Here we use a trophic network model that combines topological and dynamic approaches to simulate disruptions of primary productivity in palaeocommunities. We apply the model to Permian and Triassic communities of the Karoo Basin, South Africa, and show that while Permian communities bear no evidence of being especially susceptible to extinction, Early Triassic communities appear to have been inherently less stable. Much of the instability results from the faster post-extinction diversification of amphibian guilds relative to amniotes. The resulting communities differed fundamentally in structure from their Permian predecessors. Additionally, our results imply that changing community structures over time may explain long-term trends like declining rates of Phanerozoic background extinction.

LETTERSUndercover. Many Alpheidae shrimps live deep in the reef and are impossible to collect nonlethally. Published by AAAS

No abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to decrease oceanic oxygen (O 2 ) concentrations, with potentially significant effects on marine ecosystems. Geologically recent episodes of abrupt climatic warming provide opportunities to assess the effects of changing oxygenation on marine communities. Thus far, this knowledge has been largely restricted to investigations using Foraminifera, with little being known about ecosystem-scale responses to abrupt, climate-forced deoxygenation. We here present high-resolution records based on the first comprehensive quantitative analysis, to our knowledge, of changes in marine metazoans (Mollusca, Echinodermata, Arthropoda, and Annelida; >5,400 fossils and trace fossils) in response to the global warming associated with the last glacial to interglacial episode. The molluscan archive is dominated by extremophile taxa, including those containing endosymbiotic sulfur-oxidizing bacteria (Lucinoma aequizonatum) and those that graze on filamentous sulfur-oxidizing benthic bacterial mats (Alia permodesta). This record, from 16,100 to 3,400 y ago, demonstrates that seafloor invertebrate communities are subject to major turnover in response to relatively minor inferred changes in oxygenation (>1.5 to <0.5 mL·L −1 [O 2 ]) associated with abrupt (<100 y) warming of the eastern Pacific. The biotic turnover and recovery events within the record expand known rates of marine biological recovery by an order of magnitude, from <100 to >1,000 y, and illustrate the crucial role of climate and oceanographic change in driving long-term successional changes in ocean ecosystems.seafloor ecosystems | abrupt climate change | deglaciation | oxygen minimum zone | metazoans O ceanic deoxygenation is a predictable, fundamental, and long-lasting property of anthropogenic climate change (1). The global ocean inventory of oxygen is predicted to decline between 1% and 7% by the year 2100, and modeling predictions reveal extensive oceanic deoxygenation, on thousand-year timescales, under "business-as-usual" carbon emission scenarios (2). Modern oceanographic time series already document rapid loss of [O 2 ] in interior ocean waters over the last 4 decades (3, 4), although this trend is complicated in regions where [O 2 ] demand is decreased through the slackening of trade winds (5). As oxygen levels in the ocean decrease and the already extensive oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) expand, the volumetric habitat for aerobic respiration is reduced, presumably resulting in a fundamental reorganization of marine communities. Past events of climate warming and OMZ expansion, including the recent deglaciation from 18 to 11 ka, provide a case study for understanding the effects on marine ecosystems of abrupt temperature and oxygenation changes.Paleoceanographic records clearly demonstrate that OMZ strength changed in response to