Introduction 172A brief overview of Atlantis 172Biophysical 173Industry and socioeconomic 173Monitoring and assessment 174 Applications to date 174Lessons learned about EBM in practice 174 EBM in practice 174Monitoring in support of EBM 180Lessons learned about using models to inform EBM 181 Abstract Models are key tools for integrating a wide range of system information in a common framework. Attempts to model exploited marine ecosystems can increase understanding of system dynamics; identify major processes, drivers and responses; highlight major gaps in knowledge; and provide a mechanism to 'road test' management strategies before implementing them in reality. The Atlantis modelling framework has been used in these roles for a decade and is regularly being modified and applied to new questions (e.g. it is being coupled to climate, biophysical and economic models to help consider climate change impacts, monitoring schemes and multiple use management). This study describes some common lessons learned from its implementation, particularly in regard to when these tools are most effective and the likely form of best practices for ecosystem-based management (EBM). Most importantly, it highlighted that no single management lever is sufficient to address the many trade-offs associated with EBM and that the mix of measures needed to successfully implement EBM will differ between systems and will change through time. Although it is doubtful that any single management action will be based solely on Atlantis, this modelling approach continues to provide important insights for managers when making natural resource management decisions.

BackgroundDengue infection spread in naive populations occurs in an explosive and widespread fashion primarily due to the absence of population herd immunity, the population dynamics and dispersal of Ae. aegypti, and the movement of individuals within the urban space. Knowledge on the relative contribution of such factors to the spatial dimension of dengue virus spread has been limited. In the present study we analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of a large dengue virus-2 (DENV-2) outbreak that affected the Australian city of Cairns (north Queensland) in 2003, quantified the relationship between dengue transmission and distance to the epidemic's index case (IC), evaluated the effects of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the odds of dengue infection, and generated recommendations for city-wide dengue surveillance and control.Methods and FindingsWe retrospectively analyzed data from 383 DENV-2 confirmed cases and 1,163 IRS applications performed during the 25-week epidemic period. Spatial (local k-function, angular wavelets) and space-time (Knox test) analyses quantified the intensity and directionality of clustering of dengue cases, whereas a semi-parametric Bayesian space-time regression assessed the impact of IRS and spatial autocorrelation in the odds of weekly dengue infection. About 63% of the cases clustered up to 800 m around the IC's house. Most cases were distributed in the NW-SE axis as a consequence of the spatial arrangement of blocks within the city and, possibly, the prevailing winds. Space-time analysis showed that DENV-2 infection spread rapidly, generating 18 clusters (comprising 65% of all cases), and that these clusters varied in extent as a function of their distance to the IC's residence. IRS applications had a significant protective effect in the further occurrence of dengue cases, but only when they reached coverage of 60% or more of the neighboring premises of a house.ConclusionBy applying sound statistical analysis to a very detailed dataset from one of the largest outbreaks that affected the city of Cairns in recent times, we not only described the spread of dengue virus with high detail but also quantified the spatio-temporal dimension of dengue virus transmission within this complex urban environment. In areas susceptible to non-periodic dengue epidemics, effective disease prevention and control would depend on the prompt response to introduced cases. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics.

Pairing location-based contact tracing and targeted indoor insecticide applications can effectively prevent dengue transmission.

BackgroundThe Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an important vector of dengue, chikungunya and Zika viruses and is a highly invasive and aggressive biter. Established populations of this species were first recognised in Australia in 2005 when they were discovered on islands in the Torres Strait, between mainland Australia and Papua New Guinea. A control program was implemented with the original goal of eliminating Ae. albopictus from the Torres Strait. We describe the evolution of management strategies that provide a template for Ae. albopictus control that can be adopted elsewhere.Methodology / Principal findingsThe control strategy implemented between 2005 and 2008 targeted larval habitats using source reduction, insect-growth regulator and pyrethroid insecticide to control larvae and adults in the containers. However, the infrequency of insecticide reapplication, the continual accumulation and replacement of containers, and imminent re-introduction of mosquitoes through people’s movement from elsewhere compromised the program. Consequently, in 2009 the objective of the program changed from elimination to quarantine, with the goal of preventing Ae albopictus from infesting Thursday and Horn islands, which are the transport hubs connecting the Torres Strait to mainland Australia. However, larval control strategies did not prevent the species establishing on these islands in 2010. Thereafter, an additional strategy adopted by the quarantine program in early 2011 was harborage spraying, whereby the vegetated, well shaded resting sites of adult Ae. albopictus were treated with a residual pyrethroid insecticide. Inclusion of this additional measure led to a 97% decline in Ae. albopictus numbers within two years. In addition, the frequency of container treatment was increased to five weeks between treatments, compared to an average of 8 weeks that occurred in the earlier iterations of the program. By 2015 and 2016, Ae. albopictus populations on the two islands were undetectable in 70–90% of surveys conducted. Importantly, a comprehensive surveillance network in selected strategic areas has not identified established populations of this species on the Australian mainland.Conclusions / SignificanceThe program has successfully reduced Ae. albopictus populations on Thursday Island and Horn Island to levels where it is undetectable in up to 90% of surveys, and has largely removed the risk of mainland establishment via that route. The vector management strategies adopted in the later years of the program have been demonstrably successful and provide a practical management framework for dengue, chikungunya or Zika virus outbreaks vectored by Ae. albopictus. As of June 2016, Ae. albopictus had not established on the Australian mainland and this program has likely contributed significantly to this outcome.