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The study described changes in floristic and vegetation structure in relation to livestock grazing intensity in a conservation area in the Succulent Karoo, South Africa. Grazing by goats and sheep is allowed in the Richtersveld National Park ͑a contractual National Park͒ which is also an area of high floristic richness and endemism. We used goat faecal pellet density, degree of trampling and percentage bare-ground at distances from the stock posts as surrogates for a gradient in grazing pressure. A stock post is the place where farmers keep, in most cases in an enclosure called a 'kraal', their animals at night and to which they return every evening after the day's herding. Twenty-seven stock posts were located in the Richtersveld National Park; nine stock posts on flats, footslopes and mountain each. We measured plant species richness and diversity, and mean percentage cover of the various plant growth forms ͑including the number of species falling into each growth form category͒ in each of the five 10 m ϫ 10 m plots ͑each 200 m apart͒ demarcated along a transect of one kilometre length from the centre of each stock post. The results showed that distance from the stock post does reflect grazing intensity use because densities in faecal pellets rapidly declined with increasing distances away from the stock post for all habitats studied. Faecal density was positively correlated with stocking density. Plant species richness and diversity was at a minimum near stock posts. Plants able to endure the effects of heavy grazing occurred near stock posts where declines in palatable plant species, assumingly sensitive to heavy grazing and trampling, were recorded. Grazing increased vegetation patchiness up to 800 m from the stock post for all the habitats. The degree to which this change in species composition occurred did not depend on stocking densities, suggesting that both grazing and landscape variability were responsible for vegetation changes in rangelands of that area of the Succulent Karoo biome.

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Setting appropriate conservation measures to halt the loss of biodiversity requires a good understanding of species' habitat requirements and potential distribution. Recent (past few decades) ecological data are typically used to estimate and understand species’ ecological niches. However, historical local extinctions may have truncated species–environment relationships, resulting in a biased perception of species' habitat preferences. This may result in incorrect assessments of the area potentially available for their conservation. Incorporating long-term (centuries-old) occurrence records with recent records may provide better information on species–environment relationships and improve the modelling and understanding of habitat suitability. We test whether neglecting long-term occurrence records leads to an underestimation of species’ historical niche and potential distribution and identify which species are more vulnerable to this effect. We compare outputs of species distribution models and niche hypervolumes built using recent records only with those built using both recent and long-term (post-1500) records, for a set of 34 large mammal species in South Africa. We find that, while using recent records only is adequate for some species, adding historical records in the analyses impacts estimates of the niche and habitat suitability for 12 species (34%) in our dataset, and that this effect is significantly higher for carnivores. These results show that neglecting long-term biodiversity records in spatial analyses risks misunderstanding, and generally underestimating, species' niches, which in turn may lead to ill-informed management decisions, with significant implications for the effectiveness of conservation efforts. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’

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