No abstract

The influence of plant traits on forest fire behaviour has evolutionary, ecological and management implications, but is poorly understood and frequently discounted. We use a process model to quantify that influence and provide validation in a diverse range of eucalypt forests burnt under varying conditions. Measured height of consumption was compared to heights predicted using a surface fuel fire behaviour model, then key aspects of our model were sequentially added to this with and without species-specific information. Our fully specified model had a mean absolute error 3.8 times smaller than the otherwise identical surface fuel model (p < 0.01), and correctly predicted the height of larger (≥1 m) flames 12 times more often (p < 0.001). We conclude that the primary endogenous drivers of fire severity are the species of plants present rather than the surface fuel load, and demonstrate the accuracy and versatility of the model for quantifying this.

Forests of the Australian Alps (SE Australia) are considered some of the most vulnerable to climate change in the country, with ecosystem collapse considered likely for some due to frequent fire. It is not yet known, however, whether increasing fire frequency may stabilize due to reductions in flammability related to reduced time for fuel accumulation, show no trend, or increase due to positive feedbacks related to vegetation changes. To determine what these trends have been historically, dynamics were measured for 58 years of mapped fire history. The 1.4 million ha forested area was divided into broad formations based on structure and dominant canopy trees, and dynamics were measured for each using flammability ratio, a modification of probability of ignition at a point. Crown fire likelihood was measured for each formation, based on satellite-derived measurements of the 2003 fire effects across a large part of the area. Contrary to popular perception but consistent with mechanistic expectations, all forests exhibited pronounced positive feedbacks. The strongest response was observed in tall, wet forests dominated by Ash-type eucalypts, where, despite a short period of low flammability following fire, post-disturbance stands have been more than eight times as likely to burn than have mature stands. The weakest feedbacks occurred in open forest, although post-disturbance forests were still 1.5 times as likely to burn as mature forests. Apart from low, dry open woodland where there was insufficient data to detect a trend, all forests were most likely to experience crown fire during their period of regeneration. The implications of this are significant for the Alps, as increasing fire frequency has the potential to accelerate by producing an increasingly flammable landscape. These effects may be semi-permanent in tall, wet forest, where frequent fire promotes ecosystem collapse into either the more flammable open forest formation, or to heathland.

Globally, collapse of ecosystems—potentially irreversible change to ecosystem structure, composition and function—imperils biodiversity, human health and well‐being. We examine the current state and recent trajectories of 19 ecosystems, spanning 58° of latitude across 7.7 M km2, from Australia's coral reefs to terrestrial Antarctica. Pressures from global climate change and regional human impacts, occurring as chronic ‘presses’ and/or acute ‘pulses’, drive ecosystem collapse. Ecosystem responses to 5–17 pressures were categorised as four collapse profiles—abrupt, smooth, stepped and fluctuating. The manifestation of widespread ecosystem collapse is a stark warning of the necessity to take action. We present a three‐step assessment and management framework (3As Pathway Awareness, Anticipation and Action) to aid strategic and effective mitigation to alleviate further degradation to help secure our future.