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Objective We develop and externally validate two models for use with radiological knee osteoarthritis. They consist of a diagnostic model for KOA and a prognostic model of time to onset of KOA. Model development and optimisation used data from the Osteoarthritis initiative (OAI) and external validation for both models was by application to data from the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST). Materials and methods The diagnostic model at first presentation comprises subjects in the OAI with and without KOA (n = 2006), modelling with multivariate logistic regression. The prognostic sample involves 5-year follow-up of subjects presenting without clinical KOA (n = 1155), with modelling with Cox regression. In both instances the models used training data sets of n = 1353 and 1002 subjects and optimisation used test data sets of n = 1354 and 1003. The external validation data sets for the diagnostic and prognostic models comprised n = 2006 and n = 1155 subjects respectively. Results The classification performance of the diagnostic model on the test data has an AUC of 0.748 (0.721–0.774) and 0.670 (0.631–0.708) in external validation. The survival model has concordance scores for the OAI test set of 0.74 (0.7325–0.7439) and in external validation 0.72 (0.7190–0.7373). The survival approach stratified the population into two risk cohorts. The separation between the cohorts remains when the model is applied to the validation data. Discussion The models produced are interpretable with app interfaces that implement nomograms. The apps may be used for stratification and for patient education over the impact of modifiable risk factors. The externally validated results, by application to data from a substantial prospective observational study, show the robustness of models for likelihood of presenting with KOA at an initial assessment based on risk factors identified by the OAI protocol and stratification of risk for developing KOA in the next five years. Conclusion Modelling clinical KOA from OAI data validates well for the MOST data set. Both risk models identified key factors for differentiation of the target population from commonly available variables. With this analysis there is potential to improve clinical management of patients.

Suicide is a major public health issue and a leading cause of death among children and young people (CYP) worldwide. There is strong evidence linking adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) to an increased risk of suicidal behaviours in adults, but there is limited understanding regarding ACEs and suicidal crises in CYP. This study aims to examine the ACEs associated with CYP presenting at Emergency Departments for suicidal crises, and specifically the factors associated with repeat attendances. This is a case series study of CYP (aged 8–16) experiencing suicidal crisis who presented in a paediatric Emergency Department in England between March 2019 and March 2021 (n = 240). The dataset was subjected to conditional independence graphical analysis. Results revealed a significant association between suicidal crisis and several ACEs. Specifically, evidence of clusters of ACE variables suggests two distinct groups of CYP associated with experiencing a suicidal crisis: those experiencing “household risk” and those experiencing “parental risk”. Female sex, history of self-harm, mental health difficulties, and previous input from mental health services were also associated with repeat hospital attendances. Findings have implications for early identification of and intervention with children who may be at a heightened risk for ACEs and associated suicidal crises.

Background Appropriate medication use is essential in ensuring optimal pharmacotherapeutic outcomes. It is mistakenly assumed that adults can swallow solid oral dosage forms (SODFs, e.g. tablets/capsules colloquially referred to as ‘pills’), without difficulty and that children cannot. KidzMed is a ‘pill swallowing’ training programme designed to teach effective SODF use in patients of all ages. It may be utilised by healthcare professionals to assist patients taking SODFs. E-learning was essential for training during COVID pandemic to reduce viral transmission. The aim of this study was to explore UK student pharmacists views of e-learning to support swallowing solid oral dosage forms. Methods This study used pre- and post-intervention online surveys on Microsoft Forms to evaluate self-directed eLearning about pill swallowing on MPharm programmes at three UK Universities using a 13-item survey. A combination of five-point Likert Scales and free-text items were used. The eLearning was available via the virtual learning environment at the University and embedded within existing curriculum. Descriptive statistical analysis was used to explore responses. Results In total, 113 of 340 (33%) students completed the survey. Seventy-eight percent (n = 65) reported the eLearning would enable them to teach adults and children to swallow SODFs successfully. Learners either agreed or strongly agreed that they felt comfortable to teach patients (95%, n = 62/113) and parents or carers (94%, n = 60) to swallow medications having completed the e-learning. Student pharmacists generally found eLearning as an acceptable way to reflect on their own experiences of ‘pill’ swallowing and how to support patients to swallow SODFs. Conclusion The KidzMed eLearning was well received by student pharmacists. Further work is needed to explore whether skills translates into real life application in the clinical settings.

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