China, the largest coal producer in the world, is responsible for over 50% of the total global methane (CH) emissions from coal mining. However, the current emission inventory of CH4 from coal mining has large uncertainties because of the lack of localized emission factors (EFs). In this study, province-level CH4 EFs from coal mining in China were developed based on the data analysis of coal production and corresponding discharged CH4 emissions from 787 coal mines distributed in 25 provinces with different geological and operation conditions. Results show that the spatial distribution of CH EFs is highly variable with values as high as 36 m3/t and as low as 0.74 m3/t. Based on newly developed CH EFs and activity data, an inventory of the province-level CH4 emissions was built for 2005-2010. Results reveal that the total CH emissions in China increased from 11.5 Tg in 2005 to 16.0 Tg in 2010. By constructing a gray forecasting model for CH EFs and a regression model for activity, the province-level CH emissions from coal mining in China are forecasted for the years of 2011-2020. The estimates are compared with other published inventories. Our results have a reasonable agreement with USEPA's inventory and are lower by a factor of 1-2 than those estimated using the IPCC default EFs. This study could help guide CH mitigation policies and practices in China.

To better understand the change in California's climate over the past century, the long-term variability and extreme events of precipitation as well as minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures during the rainy season (from November to March) are investigated using observations. Their relationships to 28 rainy season average climate indices with and without time lags are also studied. The precipitation variability is found to be highly correlated with the tropical/Northern Hemisphere pattern (TNH) index at zero time lag with the highest correlation in Northern California and the Sierra and the correlation decreasing southward. This is an important finding because there have been no conclusive studies on the dominant climate modes that modulate precipitation variability in Northern California. It is found that the TNH modulates California precipitation variability through the development of a positive (negative) height anomaly and its associated low-level moisture fluxes over the northeast Pacific Ocean during the positive (negative) TNH phase. Temperature fields, especially minimum temperature, are found to be primarily modulated by the east Pacific/North Pacific pattern, Pacific decadal oscillation, North Pacific pattern, and Pacific-North American pattern at zero time lag via changes in the lower-tropospheric temperature advections. Regression analysis suggests a combination of important climate indices would improve predictability for precipitation and minimum temperature statewide and subregionally compared to the use of a single climate index. While California's precipitation currently is primarily projected by ENSO, this study suggests that using the combination of the TNH and ENSO indices results in better predictability than using ENSO indices only.

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This study explores climate-change influences on future air pollution-relevant meteorological variables (e.g., temperature, wind, humidity, boundary layer heights) and atmospheric phenomena (e.g., heat wave, marine air penetration, droughts) over California by the 2050s. The Community Earth System Model simulation results from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 under an emission scenario that most closely aligns with California's climate change goals were bias-corrected with respect to North American Regional Reanalysis data to reduce biases in both the climatological mean and inter-annual variations. The bias-corrected ~ 1° × 1° meteorological fields were dynamically downscaled to a resolution of 4 km × 4 km over California using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. This study focuses on summertime results, while the analysis of wintertime results will be presented in a separate paper. Our downscaled results projected a future increase of approximately 1 K in summer mean surface temperature over California under this single future climate realization. The temperature increase is larger in the nighttime than in the daytime. Water vapor mixing ratio is also projected to increase over California and off the coast. There are discernable decreases in boundary layer heights over the mountain ranges surrounding the central valley of California, while increases in boundary layer heights are observed over other regions in California. The number and duration of heat wave events are projected to increase substantially over the most populated parts of the State. The occurrence of marine air penetration events over the northern California is also projected to increase in the future. Keywords Dynamical downscaling • Climate change • Heat wave • Marine air penetration • California This paper has been reviewed by the staff of the California Air Resources Board and has been approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the California Air Resources Board, nor does mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use.