Surface water and groundwater management are often tightly linked, even when linkage is not intended or expected. This link is especially common in semi-arid regions, such as California. This paper summarizes a modeling study on the effects of ending long-term overdraft in California's Central Valley, the state's largest aquifer system. The study focuses on economic and operational aspects, such as surface water pumping and diversions, groundwater recharge, water scarcity, and the associated operating and water scarcity costs. This analysis uses CALVIN, a hydro-economic optimization model for California's water resource system that suggests operational changes to minimize net system costs for a given set of conditions, such as ending long-term overdraft. Based on model results, ending overdraft might induce some major statewide operational changes, including large increases to Delta exports, more intensive conjunctive-use operations with increasing artificial and in-lieu recharge, and greater water scarcity for Central Valley agriculture. The statewide costs of ending roughly 1.2 maf yr -1 of groundwater overdraft are at least $50 million per year from additional direct water shortage and additional operating costs. At its worst, the costs of ending Central Valley overdraft could be much higher, perhaps comparable to the recent economic effects of drought. Driven by recent state legislation to improve groundwater sustainability, ending groundwater overdraft has important implications statewide for water use and management, particularly in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Ending Central Valley overdraft will amplify economic pressure to increase Delta water exports rather than reduce them, tying together two of California's largest water management problems.

Treated wastewater irrigation began two decades ago in the Salinas Valley of California and provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the long-term effects of this strategy on soil salinization. We used data from a long-term field experiment that included application of a range of blended water salinity on vegetables, strawberries and artichoke crops using surface and pressurized irrigation systems to calibrate and validate a root zone salinity model. We first applied the method of Morris to screen model parameters that have negligible influence on the output (soil‐water electrical conductivity (ECsw)), and then the variance-based method of Sobol to select parameter values and complete model calibration and validation. While model simulations successfully captured long-term trends in soil salinity, model predictions underestimated ECsw for high ECsw samples. The model prediction error for the validation case ranged from 2.6% to 39%. The degree of soil salinization due to continuous application of water with electrical conductivity (ECw) of 0.57 dS/m to 1.76 dS/m depends on multiple factors; ECw and actual crop evapotranspiration had a positive effect on ECsw, while rainfall amounts and fallow had a negative effect. A 50-year simulation indicated that soil water equilibrium (ECsw ≤ 2dS/m, the initial ECsw) was reached after 8 to 14 years for vegetable crops irrigated with ECw of 0.95 to 1.76. Annual salt output loads for the 50-year simulation with runoff was a magnitude greater (from 305 to 1028 kg/ha/year) than that in deep percolation (up to 64 kg/ha/year). However, for all sites throughout the 50-year simulation, seasonal root zone salinity (saturated paste extract) did not exceed thresholds for salt tolerance for the selected crop rotations for the range of blended applied water salinities.

Regime shifts of major salinity constituents (Ca, Mg, Na, K, SO4, Cl, HCO3, and NO3) in the lower Salinas River, an agricultural ecosystem, can have major impacts on ecosystem services central to continued agricultural production in the region. Regime shifts are large, persistent, and often abrupt changes in the structure and dynamics of social-ecological systems that occur when there is a reorganization of the dominant feedbacks in the system. Monitoring information on changes in the system state, controlling variables, and feedbacks is a crucial contributor to applying sustainability and ecosystem resilience at an operational level. To better understand the factors driving salinization of the lower Salinas River on the central coast of California, we examined a 27-year record of concentrations of major salinity constituents in the river. Although limited in providing an understanding of solute flux behavior during storm events, long-term “grab sampling” datasets with accompanying stream discharges can be used to estimate the actual history of concentrations and fluxes. We developed new concentration–discharge relationships to evaluate the dynamics of chemical weathering, hydrological processes, and agricultural practices in the watershed. Examinations of long-term records of surface water and groundwater salinity are required to provide both understanding and perspective towards managing salinity in arid and semi-arid regions while also enabling determination of the influence of external climatic variability and internal drivers in the system. We found that rock weathering is the main source of Ca, Mg, Na, HCO3, and SO4 in the river that further enables ion exchange between Ca, Mg, and Na. River concentrations of K, NO3, and Cl were associated with human activities while agricultural practices were the major source of K and NO3. A more direct anthropogenic positive trend in NO3 that has persisted since the mid-1990s is associated with the lag or memory effects of field cropping and use of flood irrigation. Event to inter-year scale patterns in the lower Salinas River salinity are further controlled by antecedent hydrologic conditions. This study underscores the importance of obtaining long-term monitoring records towards understanding watershed changes-of-state and time constants on the range of driving processes.