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This paper proposes a generation dispatch model based on the maximum entropy principle. The objective is to find an optimal generation dispatch strategy that minimizes the generation cost and satisfies the security constraints of power systems, while taking into account the uncertainty of wind power. Since in many situations, only partial information of the probabilistic variables can be obtained, the maximum entropy principle is introduced to find the most likely realized probability distributions of the power flow, thus providing an accurate probabilistic circumstance to solve the generation dispatch model. The proposed method is tested on the IEEE 39-bus system, and is compared with the methodologies based on Monte Carlo simulation and Gram-Charlier expansions.

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Abstract:Wind power prediction research shows that it is difficult to accurately and effectively estimate the probability distribution (PD) of wind power. When only partial information of the wind power probability distribution function is available, an optimal available transfer capability (ATC) assessment strategy considering the uncertainty on the wind power probability distribution is proposed in this paper. As wind power probability distribution is not accurately given, the proposed strategy can efficiently maximize ATC with the security operation constraints satisfied under any wind power PD function case in the uncertainty set. A distributional robust chance constrained (DRCC) model is developed to describe an optimal ATC assessment problem. To achieve tractability of the DRCC model, the dual optimization, S-lemma and Schur complement are adopted to eliminate the uncertain wind power vector in the DRCC model. According to the characteristics of the problem, the linear matrix inequality (LMI)-based particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to solve the DRCC model which contains first and second-order moment information of the wind power. The modified IEEE 30-bus system simulation results show the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed ATC assessment strategy.