Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on China’s grain futures prices. Related literature has discussed several factors contributing to the dramatic boom and bust in China’s grain futures prices, but has overlooked the influence of EPU. Design/methodology/approach The study employs a newly developed time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model to study and contrast the impact of different types of uncertainty on China’s grain futures prices. The directional volatility spillover index is used to measure the impact of EPU on China’s grain futures prices and compare the differences among commodities. Findings The results show that EPU affects China’s grain futures prices significantly. The 2008 global financial crisis had stronger influence on China’s grain futures prices than other types of uncertainty. Furthermore, EPU has smaller influence on wheat futures price than on maize and soybean. The Chinese Government interventions may be the reason for this difference. Originality/value This study addresses the lack of empirical investigation on the influence of EPU on China’s grain futures price volatility.

The sustainable and efficient use of water resources has gained wide social concern, and the key point is to investigate the virtual water trade of the water-scarcity region and optimize water resources allocation. In this paper, we apply a multi-regional input-output model to analyze patterns and the spillover risks of the interprovincial virtual water trade in the Yellow River Economic Belt, China. The results show that: (1) The agriculture and supply sector as well as electricity and hot water production own the largest total water use coefficient, being high-risk water use sectors in the Yellow River Economic Belt. These two sectors also play a major role in the inflow and outflow of virtual water; (2) The overall situation of the Yellow River Economic Belt is virtual water inflow, but the pattern of virtual water trade between eastern and western provinces is quite different. Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia belong to the virtual water net inflow area, while the virtual water net outflow regions are concentrated in Shanxi, Gansu, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Qinghai; (3) Due to higher water resource stress, Shandong and Shanxi suffer a higher cumulative risk through virtual water trade. Also, Shandong, Henan, and Inner Mongolia have a higher spillover risk to other provinces in the Yellow River Economic Belt.

Virtual water trade is widely considered as a potential method to solve local water shortage and unequal distribution. However, limited research investigated water-saving efficiency and water inequality of inter-provincial virtual water trade. In this study, we sought to explore this issue within China based on the 2015 input-output data. A multi-regional input-output model and a modified input-output model were used to estimate the virtual water trade and its impact on water-saving and water inequality. Our results suggest that: (1) The total virtual water flow across the country is 200.03 × 109 m3, which accounts for 32.77% of water withdrawal. The agriculture sector contributes the highest proportion (73.99%) to virtual water flow. (2) Virtual water trade could decrease water withdrawal by 446.08 × 109 m3 compared with withdrawal under no-trade situation at a national level, and 22 provinces could gain benefits through inter-provincial trade with a positive water-saving efficiency index. (3) Virtual water trade also causes water inequality, which exacerbates water scarcity of exported provinces, especially in northwest provinces. (4) There is a conflict between water conservation and water inequality, but different provinces show significant heterogeneity.

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In this study, we investigated the impact of three different perceived risk and environmental attitude on the fertilizer reduction behavior in vegetable production and the interplay between perceived risk and environmental attitude. We found that perceived economic risk can exert a significant and negative effect on farmers’ fertilizer reduction behavior (−0.39) and perceived social and psychological risks has a relatively weak negative impact with coefficients of −0.25 and −0.23, respectively. A more friendly environmental attitude can significantly and positively affect farmers’ fertilizer reduction behavior. Furthermore, environmental attitude has a moderating effect on the association between perceived risk and farmer’s fertilizer reduction behavior, but just significant for economic and social risk. In other words, a better environmental attitude could reduce the negative effect of perceived risk. This study promoted our new understanding of the risk perception’s impact on farmers’ behavior.