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Landslides are one of the most severe and common geological hazards in the world. The purpose of this research is to establish a coupled landslide warning model based on random forest susceptibility zoning and precipitation. The 1520 landslide events in Fengjie County, Chongqing, China, before 2016 are taken as research cases. We adapt the random forest model to build a landslide susceptibility model. The antecedent effective precipitation model, based on the fractal relationship, is used to calculate the antecedent effective precipitation in the 10 days before the landslide event. Based on different susceptibility zones, the effective precipitation corresponding to different cumulative frequencies is counted as the threshold, and the threshold is adjusted according to the fitted curve. Finally, according to the daily precipitation, the rain warning levels in susceptibility zones are further adjusted, and the final prewarning model of the susceptibility zoning and precipitation coupling is obtained. The results show that the random forest model has good prediction ability for landslide susceptibility zoning, and the precipitation warning model that couples landslide susceptibility, antecedent effective precipitation, and the daily precipitation threshold has high early warning ability. At the same time, it was found that the precipitation warning model coupled with antecedent effective precipitation and the daily precipitation threshold has more accurate precipitation warning ability than the precipitation warning model coupled with the antecedent effective precipitation only; the coupling of the two can complement each other to better characterize the occurrence of landslides triggered by rainfall. The proposed coupled landslide early warning model based on random forest susceptibility and rainfall inducing factors can provide scientific guidance for landslide early warning and prediction, and improve the manageability of landslide risk.

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(1) Background: The aim of this paper was to study landslide susceptibility mapping based on interpretable machine learning from the perspective of topography differentiation. (2) Methods: This paper selects three counties (Chengkou, Wushan and Wuxi counties) in northeastern Chongqing, delineated as the corrosion layered high and middle mountain region (Zone I), and three counties (Wulong, Pengshui and Shizhu counties) in southeastern Chongqing, delineated as the middle mountainous region of strong karst gorges (Zone II), as the study area. This study used a Bayesian optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of the LightGBM and XGBoost models and construct evaluation models for each of the two regions. The model with high accuracy was selected according to the accuracy of the evaluation indicators in order to establish the landslide susceptibility mapping. The SHAP algorithm was then used to explore the landslide formation mechanisms of different landforms from both a global and local perspective. (3) Results: The AUC values for the test set in the LightGBM mode for Zones I and II are 0.8525 and 0.8859, respectively, and those for the test set in the XGBoost model are 0.8214 and 0.8375, respectively. This shows that LightGBM has a high prediction accuracy with regard to both landforms. Under the two different landform types, the elevation, land use, incision depth, distance from road and the average annual rainfall were the common dominant factors contributing most to decision making at both sites; the distance from a fault and the distance from the river have different degrees of influence under different landform types. (4) Conclusions: the optimized LightGBM-SHAP model is suitable for the analysis of landslide susceptibility in two types of landscapes, namely the corrosion layered high and middle mountain region, and the middle mountainous region of strong karst gorges, and can be used to explore the internal decision-making mechanism of the model at both the global and local levels, which makes the landslide susceptibility prediction results more realistic and transparent. This is beneficial to the selection of a landslide susceptibility index system and the early prevention and control of landslide hazards, and can provide a reference for the prediction of potential landslide hazard-prone areas and interpretable machine learning research.

Landslide is a common natural disaster, which has a serious impact on human life, property safety and socioeconomic development. Landslide susceptibility zoning can predict the spatial distribution of landslide occurrence probability. Based on grid units, slope units and terrain units, this study explore the influence of different evaluation units on regional landslide susceptibility zoning. Taking Yunyang County as a case study, 15 influencing factors such as elevation, slope and curvature were selected to establish a geospatial database, and the light gradient boosting machine (LGBM) algorithm was used to const-ruct the landslide susceptibility model (LSM). The results show that the accuracy of LSM constructed by different evaluation units is diffe-rent. Among them, the LGBM model based on grid units has the highest accuracy, with an accuracy of 0.7589, F1-Score of 0.7453, and the area under curve (AUC) values in training data set and verification data set were 0.8998and 0.8099, respectively. In addition, SHaply Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) is used to explain the model. The global interpretation shows that elevation, distance from river and distance from road have great influence on landslide in the study area. Local interpretation found that elevation, distance from the river and distance from the road have a greater impact on Jiuxianping landslide. This study can provide scientific reference for LSM construction and disaster prevention.