Climate change is presenting an ongoing and eminent threat to various regions, communities and infrastructure worldwide. In this study, the current and future climate impacts faced by Viet Nam due to Tropical Cyclones (TCs), specifically wind and surge, are evaluated, and different adaptation measures to manage this risk are appraised. The level of wind and storm surge risk was assessed focusing on three categories of assets: residential houses, agriculture, and people. The expected damage to these assets was then evaluated based on their exposure to the hazard under current and future climate scenarios. Physical adaptation measures such as mangroves, sea dykes, and gabions, and financial adaptation measures such as risk transfer via insurance were applied to the expected future risk and evaluated based on a socio-economic cost–benefit analysis. The output will give decision-makers the ability to make more informed decisions, prioritize the most cost-effective adaptation measures and increase physical and financial resilience. The results indicated significant TC exposure in future climate scenarios due to economic development and climate change that almost doubles the current expected damage. Surge-related damage was found to be many times higher than wind damage, and houses had more exposure (value in total) than agriculture on a national scale. The physical adaptation measures are successful in significantly reducing the future wind and especially surge risk and would form a resilient strategy along with risk transfer for managing TC risks in the region.

Fiscal resilience against disasters is vital for the recovery in the aftermath of climate hazards. Without swift access to available funds for disaster relief, damages to human and the economy would be further exacerbated. How insurance may influence fiscal performance over time and can increase fiscal resilience for today and under a future climate has not been looked at yet in detail. Focusing on the Caribbean region and on the fiscal performance of governments after disaster events, we empirically analyze the effectiveness of the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF) regarding the reduction of short-term fiscal effects. We embed this analysis within a novel climate impact storyline approach where we produce past plausible events and investigate the usefulness of insurance under such events. The storylines were modified according to global and climate change related boundary conditions to address the issue whether the CCRIF is fit for purpose or will need to be adapted in the future. We found that both hurricane strikes and the CCRIF affect fiscal outcomes of Caribbean countries. Furthermore, there are indications that CCRIF can counteract the negative fiscal consequences over the short term period induced by the disaster. Our analysis should shed some light on the current discussions on how development related assistance can be structured to enhance climate resilience in highly exposed countries for both direct and fiscal impacts of disasters.