SummaryTo revisit global net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions transfers by international trade for year 2007, this study employs a new world-wide, multiregional input-output (MRIO) table in which China's production is separated into domestic use, processing exports, and nonprocessing exports. The results show that processing exports in China involves relatively lower CO 2 emissions than other production types for the same output levels. Therefore, if processing exports are not appropriately distinguished, net CO 2 emission exports from China to other regions will be distorted; the relative bias occasionally reaches 15%. Net emission exports from regions other than China are also distorted, particularly for regions that use considerable Chinese processing exports as intermediates, such as the United States, European Union (EU), and East Asia. Given that processing exports prevail in a large number of developing countries, such as Mexico and Vietnam, one should carefully interpret measurements of net emission transfers by international trade by utilizing the ordinary world-wide MRIO model.
This paper estimates China's future population and labour force by developing a novel forecasting model for population. It combines information about age-specific parameters on fertility and mortality for both rural and urban areas using information about rural-urban migration and the transformation of rural areas into urban ones. This model takes into account the effects of urbanisation on changes in the age structure of the Chinese population; and provides separate projections on the rural and urban populations. Our findings show that (i) the shares of people aged 65 and over, in China's rural and urban populations, will double between 2010 and 2030; this implies that the ageing problem in rural areas will continue to be more serious than in urban areas; (ii) the rural labour force will shrink by 45 per cent, between 2010 and 2030, while the urban labour force will grow by 34 per cent; and (iii) China's urbanisation rate will increase to 71 per cent by 2030.
Cataloging-In-Publication Data Asian Development Bank. Skills and activity upgrading in global value chains: Trends and drivers for Asia. Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2016. 1. Functional upgrading. 2. Global multiregional input-output model. 3. Global supply chains. 4. Structural decomposition analysis. 5. World input-output database. I. Asian Development Bank. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by ADB in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term "country" in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.
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