Physical fitness appears to be a graded, independent, long-term predictor of mortality from cardiovascular causes in healthy, middle-aged men. A high level of fitness was also associated with lower mortality from any cause.

The outcome of 1999 apparently healthy men aged 40 to 59 years investigated from 1972 through 1975 was ascertained after 16 years to determine whether systolic blood pressure measured with subjects in the sitting position during a bicycle ergometer exercise test adds prognostic information on cardiovascular mortality beyond that of casual blood pressure measured after 5 minutes of supine rest. During a total follow-up of 31 984 patient years, 278 patients died, 150 from cardiovascular causes. Casual blood pressure and pulse pressure as well as peak exercise systolic blood pressure during 6 minutes on the starting workload of 600 kpm/min (approximately 100 W, 5880 J/min) were all related to cardiovascular mortality. The relative risk (RR) of dying from cardiovascular causes associated with an increment of 48.5 mm Hg (=2 SD) in systolic blood pressure at 600 kilopondmeter (kpm)/min was significant (RR=1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1-2.3, P=.O4O) even when adjusting for a large number of variables measured in the present study, including age, exercise capacity, smoking habits, and casual blood pressures. The influence of blood pressure at 600 kpm/min was so

Apparently healthy men (n=1999, 40 to 59 years old) were investigated from 1972 through 1975 to determine whether systolic blood pressure during bicycle ergometer exercise predicts morbidity and mortality from myocardial infarction beyond that of casual blood pressure taken after 5 minutes of supine rest. During a follow-up of 31 984 patient-years (average, 16 years), 235 subjects had myocardial infarctions, of which 143 were nonfatal and 92 were fatal. Exercise blood pressure was more strongly related than casual blood pressure to both morbidity and mortality from myocardial infarction. Among 520 men with casual systolic blood pressure = 140 mm Hg, 304 increased their systolic blood pressure to > or = 200 mm Hg during 6 minutes of exercise at an initial workload of 600 kpm/min. These 304 men had an excessive risk of myocardial infarction (18.8% versus 9.5% among the 1294 men with casual blood pressure < 140 mm Hg and exercise blood pressure < 200 mm Hg; P < .001). As many as 58% of those with myocardial infarction in this group died, compared with 33% (range, 26% to 35%) for all other groups (P=.0011), including those with casual blood pressure > or = 140 mm Hg and exercise blood pressure < 200 mm Hg. Thus, exercise blood pressure is a stronger predictor than casual blood pressure of morbidity and mortality from myocardial infarction, and an early rise in systolic blood pressure during exercise adds prognostic information about mortality from myocardial infarction among otherwise healthy middle-aged men with mildly elevated casual blood pressure. We suggest that blood pressure taken during standardized exercise testing may distinguish between severe and less severe hypertension.

These results are different from the mortality data at 16 years, when the independent predictive effect of supine systolic BP was cancelled out by 6 min exercise systolic BP at 600 kpm/min. Twenty-one years of follow-up of 1999 apparently healthy men disclose independently predictive information on CV death, of both supine systolic BP and 6 min exercise systolic BP taken at an early moderate workload. The influence of maximal exercise systolic BP on CV death is however cancelled out by the two other systolic BPs.

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