Abstract. As a key component of the carbon cycle, soil CO2 efflux (SCE) is being increasingly studied to improve our mechanistic understanding of this important carbon flux. Predicting ecosystem responses to climate change often depends on extrapolation of current relationships between ecosystem processes and their climatic drivers to conditions not yet experienced by the ecosystem. This raises the question of to what extent these relationships remain unaltered beyond the current climatic window for which observations are available to constrain the relationships. Here, we evaluate whether current responses of SCE to fluctuations in soil temperature and soil water content can be used to predict SCE under altered rainfall patterns. Of the 58 experiments for which we gathered SCE data, 20 were discarded because either too few data were available or inconsistencies precluded their incorporation in the analyses. The 38 remaining experiments were used to test the hypothesis that a model parameterized with data from the control plots (using soil temperature and water content as predictor variables) could adequately predict SCE measured in the manipulated treatment. Only for 7 of these 38 experiments was this hypothesis rejected. Importantly, these were the experiments with the most reliable data sets, i.e., those providing high-frequency measurements of SCE. Regression tree analysis demonstrated that our hypothesis could be rejected only for experiments with measurement intervals of less than 11 days, and was not rejected for any of the 24 experiments with larger measurement intervals. This highlights the importance of high-frequency measurements when studying effects of altered precipitation on SCE, probably because infrequent measurement schemes have insufficient capacity to detect shifts in the climate dependencies of SCE. Hence, the most justified answer to the question of whether current moisture responses of SCE can be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered precipitation regimes is "no" – as based on the most reliable data sets available. We strongly recommend that future experiments focus more strongly on establishing response functions across a broader range of precipitation regimes and soil moisture conditions. Such experiments should make accurate measurements of water availability, should conduct high-frequency SCE measurements, and should consider both instantaneous responses and the potential legacy effects of climate extremes. This is important, because with the novel approach presented here, we demonstrated that, at least for some ecosystems, current moisture responses could not be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered rainfall conditions.

We conducted a 6-year field manipulation drought experiment in an evergreen Quercus ilex forest where we simulated the drought predicted by GCM and ecophysiological models for the coming decades (an average of 15% soil moisture reduction). We thereby tested the hypothesis that enhanced drought will change Ca, Fe, Mg, Mo and S availability, concentrations and accumulation patterns in Mediterranean ecosystems. The strongest effects of drought occurred in the soil. Drought increased the total soil concentrations of S, the soil extract concentrations of Fe, Mg and S, the Mg saturation in the soil exchangeable complex and tended to increase the percentage base saturation of the soil exchangeable complex. These increased soil concentrations were related to a decrease of plant uptake capacity and not to an increase of soil enzyme activity, which in fact decreased under drier conditions. Drought increased leaf Mg concentrations in the three dominant species although only significantly in Quercus ilex and Arbutus unedo (20 and 14%, respectively). In contrast, drought tended to decrease Ca in Phillyrea latifolia (18%) and Ca and Fe concentrations in the wood of all three species. Drought increased Ca and Fe concentrations in the roots of Quercus ilex (26 and 127%). There was a slight general trend to decrease total biomass accumulation of nutrients that depend on water flux such as Mg, Fe and S. This effect was related to a decrease of soil moisture that reduced soil flow, and to a decrease in photosynthetic capacity, sap flow, transpiration and growth, and therefore plant uptake capacity under drought observed in Quercus ilex and Arbutus unedo. On the contrary, drought increased Mo accumulation in aboveground biomass in Phillyrea latifolia and reduced Mo accumulation in Arbutus unedo by reducing growth and wood Mo concentrations (51%). Phillyrea latifolia showed a great capacity to adapt to drier conditions, with no decrease in growth, an increase of Mo uptake capacity and a decrease in leaf Ca concentration, which was related to a decrease in transpiration under drought. The results indicate asymmetrical changes in species capacity to accumulate these elements, which are likely to produce changes in inter-specific competitive relations among dominant plant species and in their nutritional quality as food sources. The results also indicate that drought tended to decrease nutrient content in aboveground biomass, mainly through the decrease in growth and transpiration of the most sensitive species and caused an increase in the availability of these nutrients in soil. Thus, drought decreased the ecosystem's capacity to retain Mg, Fe and S, facilitating their loss in torrential rainfalls.

Abstract. As a key component of the carbon cycle, soil CO2 efflux (SCE) is being increasingly studied to improve our mechanistic understanding of this important carbon flux. Predicting ecosystem responses to climate change often depends on extrapolation of current relationships between ecosystem processes and their climatic drivers to conditions not yet experienced by the ecosystem. This raises the question to what extent these relationships remain unaltered beyond the current climatic window for which observations are available to constrain the relationships. Here, we evaluate whether current responses of SCE to fluctuations in soil temperature and soil water content can be used to predict SCE under altered rainfall patterns. Of the 58 experiments for which we gathered SCE data, 20 were discarded because either too few data were available, or inconsistencies precluded their incorporation in the analyses. The 38 remaining experiments were used to test the hypothesis that a model parameterized with data from the control plots (using soil temperature and water content as predictor variables) could adequately predict SCE measured in the manipulated treatment. Only for seven of these 38 experiments, this hypothesis was rejected. Importantly, these were the experiments with the most reliable datasets, i.e., those providing high-frequency measurements of SCE. Accordingly, regression tree analysis demonstrated that measurement frequency was crucial; our hypothesis could be rejected only for experiments with measurement intervals of less than 11 days, and was not rejected for any of the 24 experiments with larger measurement intervals. This highlights the importance of high-frequency measurements when studying effects of altered precipitation on SCE, probably because infrequent measurement schemes have insufficient capacity to detect shifts in the climate-dependencies of SCE. We strongly recommend that future experiments focus more strongly on establishing response functions across a broader range of precipitation regimes and soil moisture conditions. Such experiments should make accurate measurements of water availability, they require high-frequency SCE measurements and they should consider both instantaneous responses and the potential legacy effects of climate extremes. This is important, because we demonstrated that at least for some ecosystems, current moisture responses cannot be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered rainfall.

This is the author's version of a work that was accepted for publication in Advances in ecological research (Ed. Elsevier). Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Andresen, LC: et al. "Shifting impacts of climate change: long-term patterns of plant response to elevated CO2, drought and warming across ecosystems" in

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