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As a transit corridor evolves with time (over several decades) due to land use and other changes, the public transit mode (or mix of modes) that serves it may have to transition from one to another several times. Two of the significant characteristics that must be considered in the transition are the capacity and average speed of each mode, since they impact passenger waiting times and invehicle travel times, respectively, as well as operating costs. Data on stated, as well as observed, maximum flows and average speeds of routes have been collected from many sources and analysed. In addition to intrinsic variations, there is considerable scatter in the data caused, in part, by the lack of information about the differences in the transit systems for which data are available, e.g. the number of transit routes passing through a corridor.Various modes considered suitable for the south Calgary corridor are ranked in terms of line capacity and average speed. The thresholds are those at which a mode transition is essential. However, mode transitions may occur well in advance of such thresholds, if a new modal mix is optimal for the corridor in terms of minimizing the sum of the costs to the users and the operator. Some preliminary results on the optimal mix of regular and express bus services in a given corridor are discussed, including the travel demand estimates and transit system parameters under which a transition from the regular bus mode to an optimal mix is mandated.

There are many transit modes, technologies and operating strategies to apply within developing transit corridors. The selection of mode will have a significant impact on the level of service, capital and operating costs, energy use, environmental impacts and transit market development.Additionally, in developing communities this is not a static decision, indeed over decades there could be several mode changes as the market within the corridor grows and matures. The appropriate transit response over time may cover a range of services: e.g. regular mainline bus, express bus, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Busways, Light Rail Transit (LRT) & Metro.Our paper will examine the appropriate decision factors and planning considerations that would lead to optimum mode selection decisions in developing corridors. The paper will examine the transit market in developing corridors in terms of changing trip densities and corridor volumes and the appropriate mode response. Factors that impact the decision may include system capacity, access, travel time, the schedule, reliability, customer experience factors, energy use, environmental impacts, capital and operating costs, etc.We will propose methodologies for optimizing mode selection and design as a corridor evolves, and selection of an optimum series of modes and transition points for a corridor over a long period of time.

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Introduction to the Model 4. 1.1 The Passenger Demand 4.1.2 Model Assumptions 4.1.3 Travel Time 4.1.4 Passenger Travel Time Cost 4.1.5 Passenger Waiting Time Cost 4.1.6 Dispatching Cost 4.1.7 Total Cost 4.2 The Calculation of the Optimum Headways 4.2.1 Proof of the "Minimum" 4.2.2 Equal Headways 4.2.3 Conditional Requirement of Passengers per Bus and Bus Capacity 4.2.4 Optimal Fleet for Combined Regular/Express Bus Operation 4.3 Numerical Example 4.4 Combinations of Scheduled and Unscheduled, Regular and Express Bus Operations 4.4.1 Case 1: Scheduled Regular and Scheduled Express Bus Operation 4.4.2 Case 2: Scheduled Regular and Unscheduled Express Bus Operation 4.4.3 Case 3: Unscheduled Regular and Scheduled Express Bus Operation 4.4.4 Case 4: Unscheduled Regular and Unscheduled Express Bus Operation 4.