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Several widespread changes in the ecology of old-growth tropical forests have recently been documented for the late twentieth century, in particular an increase in stem turnover (pan-tropical), and an increase in above-ground biomass (neotropical). Whether these changes are synchronous and whether changes in growth are also occurring is not known. We analysed stand-level changes within 50 long-term monitoring plots from across South America spanning . We show that: (i) basal area (BA: sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees in a plot) increased significantly over time (by 0.10 ± 0.04 m 2 ha Ϫ1 yr Ϫ1 , mean ± 95% CI); as did both (ii) stand-level BA growth rates (sum of the increments of BA of surviving trees and BA of new trees that recruited into a plot); and (iii) stand-level BA mortality rates (sum of the cross-sectional areas of all trees that died in a plot). Similar patterns were observed on a per-stem basis: (i) stem density (number of stems per hectare; 1 hectare is 10 4 m 2 ) increased significantly over time (0.94 ± 0.63 stems ha Ϫ1 yr Ϫ1 ); as did both (ii) stem recruitment rates; and (iii) stem mortality rates. In relative terms, the pools of BA and stem density increased by 0.38 ± 0.15% and 0.18 ± 0.12% yr Ϫ1 , respectively. The fluxes into and out of these pools-stand-level BA growth, stand-level BA mortality, stem recruitment and stem mortality rates-increased, in relative terms, by an order of magnitude more. The gain terms (BA growth, stem recruitment) consistently exceeded the loss terms (BA loss, stem mortality) throughout the period, suggesting that whatever process is driving these changes was already acting before the plot network was established. Large long-term increases in stand-level BA growth and simultaneous increases in stand BA and stem density imply a continent-wide increase in resource availability which is increasing net primary productivity and altering forest dynamics. Continent-wide changes in incoming solar radiation, and increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and air temperatures may have increased resource supply over recent decades, thus causing accelerated growth and increased dynamism across the world's largest tract of tropical forest.Keywords: carbon; permanent sample plot; turnover; mortality; recruitment; biomass * Author and address for correspondence: Earth and Biosphere Institute, Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK (slewis@pobox.com).One contribution of 17 to a Theme Issue 'Tropical forests and global atmospheric change'.

The Amazon Basin has experienced more variable climate over the last decade, with a severe and widespread drought in 2005 causing large basin‐wide losses of biomass. A drought of similar climatological magnitude occurred again in 2010; however, there has been no basin‐wide ground‐based evaluation of effects on vegetation. We examine to what extent the 2010 drought affected forest dynamics using ground‐based observations of mortality and growth from an extensive forest plot network. We find that during the 2010 drought interval, forests did not gain biomass (net change: −0.43 Mg ha−1, confidence interval (CI): −1.11, 0.19, n = 97), regardless of whether forests experienced precipitation deficit anomalies. This contrasted with a long‐term biomass sink during the baseline pre‐2010 drought period (1998 to pre‐2010) of 1.33 Mg ha−1 yr−1 (CI: 0.90, 1.74, p < 0.01). The resulting net impact of the 2010 drought (i.e., reversal of the baseline net sink) was −1.95 Mg ha−1 yr−1 (CI:−2.77, −1.18; p < 0.001). This net biomass impact was driven by an increase in biomass mortality (1.45 Mg ha−1 yr−1 CI: 0.66, 2.25, p < 0.001) and a decline in biomass productivity (−0.50 Mg ha−1 yr−1, CI:−0.78, −0.31; p < 0.001). Surprisingly, the magnitude of the losses through tree mortality was unrelated to estimated local precipitation anomalies and was independent of estimated local pre‐2010 drought history. Thus, there was no evidence that pre‐2010 droughts compounded the effects of the 2010 drought. We detected a systematic basin‐wide impact of the 2010 drought on tree growth rates across Amazonia, which was related to the strength of the moisture deficit. This impact differed from the drought event in 2005 which did not affect productivity. Based on these ground data, live biomass in trees and corresponding estimates of live biomass in lianas and roots, we estimate that intact forests in Amazonia were carbon neutral in 2010 (−0.07 Pg C yr−1 CI:−0.42, 0.23), consistent with results from an independent analysis of airborne estimates of land‐atmospheric fluxes during 2010. Relative to the long‐term mean, the 2010 drought resulted in a reduction in biomass carbon uptake of 1.1 Pg C, compared to 1.6 Pg C for the 2005 event.

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Over the past century almost every ecosystem on Earth has come under the influence of changes in atmospheric composition and climate caused by human activity. Tropical forests are among the most productive and extensive ecosystems, and it has been hypothesized that both the dynamics and biomass of apparently undisturbed, old-growth tropical forests have been changing in response to atmospheric changes. Long-term forest sample plots are a critical tool in detecting and monitoring such changes, and our recent analysis of pan-tropical-forest plot data has suggested that the biomass of tropical forests has been increasing, providing a modest negative feedback on the rate of accumulation of atmospheric COj. However, it has been argued that some of these old forest plot data sets have significant problems in interpretation because of the use of nonstandardized meth-odologies. In this paper we examine the extent to which potential field methodological errors may bias estimates of total biomass change by detailed examination of tree-by-tree records from up to 120 Neotropical plots to test predictions from theory. Potential positive biases on measurements of biomass change include a bias in site selection, tree deformities introduced by the measurement process, poor methodologies to deal with tree deformities or buttresses, and nonrecording of negative growth increments. We show that, while it is important to improve and standardize methodologies in current and future forest-plot work, any systematic errors introduced by currently identified biases in past studies are small and calculable. We conclude that most tropical-forest plot data are of useful quality, and that the evidence does still weigh conclusively in favor of a recent increase of biomass in old-growth tropical forests.