This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between the development of Islamic finance system and growth of the economy in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). To document the relationship between development of Islamic finance and economic growth, time series data from 1990 to 2010 were used. We use Islamic banks’ financing credited to private sector through modes of financing as a proxy for the development of Islamic finance system and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), as proxies for real economic growth. For the analysis, the unit root test, cointegration test and Granger Causality tests were done. Our empirical results show that there is a strong positive association between Islamic banks’ financing and economic growth in the UAE, which reinforces the idea that a well-functioning banking system promotes economic growth. However, our results indicate that a causal relationship happens only in one direction, i.e., from Islamic banks’ financing to economic growth, which supports Schumpeter’s supply-leading theory. In this case, the development in the Islamic financial sector acts as supply, leading to transfer of resources from the traditional, low-growth sectors to the modern high-growth sectors, and to promote and stimulate an entrepreneurial response in these modern sectors. Furthermore, the results show that Islamic Banks’ financing has contributed to the increase of investment in UAE in the long term and in a positive way.

Islamic finance is one of the fastest growing sectors of the global banking industry and has risen to prominence recently through its distinctive characteristics. The emergence of Islamic finance can be traced back to 1963 in Egypt, while its importance comes to the global financial system only after the global financial crisis occurred in 2008. This paper explores empirically the relationship between the development of Islamic finance and economic growth in the Middle East. Three of the most important countries for Islamic finance growth from Middle East, namely Qatar, Bahrain, and United Arab Emirates (UAE), are selected for the study. To document the relationship between development of Islamic finance and economic growth, annually time-series data of economic growth and Islamic banks' financing were used. We use Islamic banks' financing credited to private sector through modes of financing as a proxy for the development of Islamic finance system and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), as a proxy for economic growth. For the analysis, the unit root test, co-integration test and Granger causality tests were done. Our empirical results generally signify that in the long run Islamic banks' financing is positive and significantly correlated with economic growth in the select countries which reinforces the idea that a well-functioning banking system promotes economic growth. The results obtained from Granger causality test reveals a causal relationship between Islamic finance and economic growth in these countries. It is neither Schumpeter's supply-leading nor Robinson's demand-following. It appears to be a bi-directional relationship from Islamic banks' financing to economic growth and vice versa for Bahrain and Qatar. The results obtained from Granger causality test for UAE indicates that a causal relationship happens only in one direction, i.e., from Islamic banks' financing to economic growth, which supports Schumpeter's supply-leading theory. Our results also indicate that improvement of the Islamic financial institutions in the Middle East countries will benefit from economic development, and it is important in the long run for the economic welfare, and also for poverty reduction. Furthermore, the results of study are quite significant as it is one of the pioneering studies of Islamic finance.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the short- and long-run spillover effect of international financial instability on emerging South Asian stock markets. The paper also investigates the financial integration regionally. Design/methodology/approach Granger causality test is used for short-run causal relations. Since results of preliminary test highlight the significant autocorrelations in stock returns, GARCH class models with extreme shocks in international financial market are utilized to test the long-run spillover impact on stock returns. Findings Results indicate significant short- and long-run spillover impacts of international financial instability on the stock returns. They highlight the significant co-integration of South Asian stock markets with the international market. Significant correlations in stock returns and volatility reveal the degree of regional integration to be high between India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Research limitations/implications Business, political and market conditions of South Asian stock markets are fundamentally different from each other. These economies were liberalized at different time, which in turn may affect the degree of integration with international equity markets and regionally alike. Practical implications Financial liberalization has linked the South Asian stock markets to the rest of the world. Stock prices move in the same line with the emergence of global expected and unexpected economic shocks. The benefits that arise from the diversification of funds will be eradicated in the long run. Investors with long investment horizons will not actually benefit from portfolio diversification in South Asian equity markets. The Bangladesh stock market does not respond to volatility in international market in the short run and may be a good destination for short-term investment. Originality/value Pioneer efforts are made by utilizing a novel approach with the use of net volatility change in world financial instability for measuring the short- and long-run impacts. Given the emergence of South Asian stock markets, new insights into their vulnerability to world financial shocks provide interesting findings for portfolio diversification.

Capital market efficiency is a matter of great interest for policy makers and investors in designing investment strategy. If efficient market hypothesis (EMH) holds true, it will prevent the investors to realize extra return by utilizing the inherent information of stocks. They will realize extra returns only by incorporating the extra risky stocks in their portfolios. While empirical tests of EMH and risk-return relationship are plentiful for developed stock markets, the focus on emerging stock markets like India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, etc., began with the liberalization of financial systems in these markets. With globalization and deregulation, the enormous opportunities of investment in South Asian stock markets have attracted the domestic and foreign institutional investors in general, and to reduce their portfolio risk by diversifying their funds across the markets in particular. The efforts are made in this study to examine the cross-correlation in stock returns of South Asian stock markets, their regional integration, and interdependence on global stock market. The study also examines the important aspects of investment strategy when investment decisions are made under risk and uncertainty. The study uses Bombay stock exchange listed index BSE 100 for India, Colombo stock exchange listed Milanka Price Index for Sri Lanka, Karachi stock exchange listed KSE 100 for Pakistan, Dhaka stock exchange listed DSE-General Index for Bangladesh, and S & P Global 1200 to represent the global market. It carries out a comprehensive analysis, tracing the autocorrelation in stock returns, cross correlations in stock returns under risk and uncertainty, interdependency among the South Asian stock markets, and that with the global stock market. The research methodology applied in the study includes application of Ljung-Box to examine the cross-correlation in stock returns, ARCH and its generalized models for the estimation of conditional and asymmetric volatilities, and Ljung-Box as a diagnostic testing of fitted models, and finally correlation to examine the interdependency of these markets in terms of stock returns and expected volatility. The results bring out the following: L-B statistics suggests the presence of autocorrelation in stock returns in all Asian stock markets; however, for the global market, autocorrelations are significant at 15 lags, and thereafter they are insignificant. The significant autocorrelations in stock returns report volatility clustering in stock returns, reject the EMH, and hold that current stock returns are significantly affected by returns being offered in the past. ARCH and its generalized models significantly explain the conditional volatility in all stock markets in question. The study rejects the relationship between stock returns and expected volatility; however, the relationship is significant with unexpected volatility. It brings out that investors adjust their risk premium for expected variations in stock prices, but they expect extra risk premium for unexpected variations. With their entry into the liberalization phase, South Asian stock markets have reported regional interdependence, and also interdependence with the global stock market.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the profitability of momentum strategies in the Indian stock market. This study further evaluates whether the momentum effect is a manifestation of size, value or an illiquidity effect. Design/methodology/approach Monthly stock return data of 470 BSE listed stocks over the sample period from January 1997 to March 2013 were used to create extreme portfolios (winner and loser). The returns of extreme portfolios were evaluated using t-statistics and a risk-adjusted measure. Further checks were imposed by controlling for other potential sources of risk including size, value and illiquidity. Findings The study provides support in favor of momentum profitability in the Indian stock market. In contrast to the literature, momentum profitability is driven by winning stocks, and hence, buying past winning stocks generates higher returns than shorting loosing stocks in the Indian stock market. Strong momentum profits were observed even after controlling for size, value and trading volume of stocks. This suggests that the momentum effect in the Indian stock market is not a manifestation of small size effect, value effect or an illiquidity effect. Practical implications From the practitioner’s perspective, the study indicates that a momentum-based investment strategy in the short run is still persistent and can generate potential profits in the Indian stock market. Originality/value There is little empirical evidence on the momentum profitability, especially in the Indian stock market. The study contributes toward the literature by analyzing the momentum profitability even after controlling for size, value and an illiquidity effect. Some aspects of the momentum effect were observed to be dissimilar from those observed in literature for the USA and other countries. Such findings justify the need for testing the momentum profitability in stock markets other than the USA.