Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide insights into the profitability of momentum strategies in the Indian stock market. This study further evaluates whether the momentum effect is a manifestation of size, value or an illiquidity effect. Design/methodology/approach Monthly stock return data of 470 BSE listed stocks over the sample period from January 1997 to March 2013 were used to create extreme portfolios (winner and loser). The returns of extreme portfolios were evaluated using t-statistics and a risk-adjusted measure. Further checks were imposed by controlling for other potential sources of risk including size, value and illiquidity. Findings The study provides support in favor of momentum profitability in the Indian stock market. In contrast to the literature, momentum profitability is driven by winning stocks, and hence, buying past winning stocks generates higher returns than shorting loosing stocks in the Indian stock market. Strong momentum profits were observed even after controlling for size, value and trading volume of stocks. This suggests that the momentum effect in the Indian stock market is not a manifestation of small size effect, value effect or an illiquidity effect. Practical implications From the practitioner’s perspective, the study indicates that a momentum-based investment strategy in the short run is still persistent and can generate potential profits in the Indian stock market. Originality/value There is little empirical evidence on the momentum profitability, especially in the Indian stock market. The study contributes toward the literature by analyzing the momentum profitability even after controlling for size, value and an illiquidity effect. Some aspects of the momentum effect were observed to be dissimilar from those observed in literature for the USA and other countries. Such findings justify the need for testing the momentum profitability in stock markets other than the USA.
This article investigates the relationship of trading volume with the profitability of momentum and long-run contrarian strategies for the Indian stock market. The result of the study provides support to Lee and Swaminathan (2000, The Journal of Finance, 55(5), 2017–2069) argument that trading volume predicts both the magnitude as well as the persistence of momentum in the long run. The portfolio of heavily traded securities earned higher momentum and contrarian returns as compared to low-trading securities portfolio in the Indian stock market. Hence, returns from both momentum and contrarian portfolios are positively related to the level of trading activity in the security. Further, the results provide evidence in favour of volume-based investment strategies. Both volume-based momentum strategy and volume-based contrarian strategy generate higher return in the Indian stock market as compared to pure momentum and contrarian strategy. In addition, the study provides support to momentum life cycle theory in explaining the relation between trading volume and momentum returns in the Indian stock market. These findings cast strong implication for Indian investors who are continuously engaged in identifying profitable investment strategies that can generate higher returns.
This study contributes to the growing literature on momentum and overreaction effect by investigating the same within the framework of the Indian stock market. Based on the most adopted methodology that employs monthly data, the empirical results derived confirm the existence of momentum and long-term overreaction effect in the Indian stock market. The overall results from the study are consistent with DeBondt and Thaler (1985) and Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) findings for the US stock market. In addition, we tested the profitability of momentum and contrarian strategies under different market states. The results indicated a strong relationship between the state of the market and momentum profitability, wherein strong momentum profits were observed following an ‘up’ market. On the contrary, long-term contrarian strategies were found to be stronger following a ‘down’ market in the Indian stock market. The market-dependent asset pricing model failed to explain excess momentum profits in the Indian stock market. The evidence from the study provides partial support to various behavioural models to explain these effects in the Indian stock market. However, there exists a need to develop a single behavioural model that could explain these anomalies completely in the emerging markets like India.
The paper investigates Indian momentum profitability along with its performance stability round the year using the stock price data from National Stock Exchange (NSE). Results show evidence in favour of momentum profitability over the sample period from 1997 to 2013. Moreover, the momentum performance is not specific to any particular month suggesting no influence of calendar on momentum anomaly in the Indian stock market, though momentum strategies performed differently in different calendar months, with particularly strong negative returns in the month of May. However, no statistically significant difference was observed among the mean monthly momentum returns across calendar months. Contrary to the US market findings, no January or similar April seasonality is observed in the Indian momentum profits suggesting some unique characteristics of Indian momentum profitability. In nutshell, the results from the study suggest support in favour of practical implementation of momentum strategies throughout the year in the Indian stock market.
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