Trading in commodity derivatives on exchange platforms is an instrument to achieve price discovery, better price risk management, besides helping macroeconomy with better resource allocation. Though the volume of commodity futures trade increased exponentially after the withdrawal of prohibition in 2003, the functioning of futures markets came under scrutiny during 2006–07 due to price rise and the government has proposed to impose transaction tax by 0.017 per cent on trading volume in the 2008–09 budget. In this context, we examine the efficiency and futures trading-price nexus for five top selected commodities namely gold, copper, petroleum crude, soya oil, and chana (chickpea) in commodity futures markets in India. Our results suggest that the commodity futures market is efficient for all five commodities. Further, we do not have sufficient evidence to support that futures market leads to higher inflation.
Researchers have begun exploring the impact of societal culture on Covid-19 outcomes (morbidity and mortality). However, emerging findings need integration with prior literature on societal culture and infectious diseases. Moreover, accumulation of knowledge warrants an update while overcoming certain limitations of samples as well as construct validity concerns. Accordingly, hypotheses are derived based on extant evidence proposing the impact of certain cultural practices on Covid-19 outcomes across countries. These hypotheses are tested using the cultural practice scores from GLOBE studies after controlling for certain covariates identified in literature. Multiple regression results reveal that societal culture significantly explains Covid-19 outcomes beyond the explanation due to control variables. Specifically, power distance and institutional collectivism show negative association with both Covid-19 morbidity and mortality. Additionally, performance orientation shows negative association with Covid-19 morbidity. It appears that power distance may ensure conformity to prescribed behaviors and features of performance orientation may facilitate swift and effective containment of Covid-19 cases. The significance of institutional collectivism—but not in-group collectivism—emerging as the form of collectivism showing negative association with Covid-19 outcomes is also discussed.
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Rajiv Kumar is the Director and Chief Executive at the Indian Council for Research and International Economic Relations (ICRIER). Alamuru Soumya is a consultant at ICRIER.The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of ADBI, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.Asian Development Bank Institute Kasumigaseki Building 8F 3-2-5 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku Tokyo 100-6008, Japan
AbstractThe need for fiscal consolidation and sustainability is one of the key macroeconomic issues confronting Indian economy. This paper attempts to understand India's current fiscal situation, its likely future development, and its impact on the economy in the context of a weak global recovery from the current crisis.
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