The literature on determinants of International Monetary Fund (IMF) interventions in emerging and developing countries shows that the IMF's decisions are determined by political and economic causes. This article empirically investigates economic factors, showing that a country's probability to sign an IMF arrangement can be predicted by looking at a core group of macroeconomic variables. Using discriminant analysis we develop a score function that allows us to predict a country's future participation in IMF programmes. The study covers 153 emerging and developing countries, over more than 30 years and 654 agreements, for both non-concessional and concessional loans. The proposed tools are simple, consistent and relevant and they can be used both to monitor an IMF country and its economic development in real time and to forecast future demand for IMF aid.
As China’s position in the global economy has gradually improved, the importance of debates on the role of the renminbi in the international monetary system has significantly increased. This paper uses bibliometric methods—Bibliometrix R-package and its web-based graphical interface Biblioshiny—applied to data imported from Web of Science and Scopus to investigate and synthesize the renminbi literature published in English between 1995 and 2021. Science mapping offers a visual representation of different networks and clusters of authors’ keywords. The performance analysis, a quantitative evaluation of the most published sources, authors and papers on renminbi internationalization in the last 25 years, shows that the interest on the topic has grown, particularly after 2009 and 2016, respectively. There is also a high degree of concentration in the field, considering that out of the 802 analyzed papers, published in 393 sources, five authors and four journals had the highest impact. The content analysis identifies the main directions in the renminbi internationalization literature and future research questions to further explore this subject. The COVID-19 pandemic and post-Ukraine war era could generate a deeper reform of the international monetary system, in which the Chinese currency will strengthen its global position alongside the US dollar and the euro.
Brexit became an important subject not only for academics but also for international institutions, research centers and consultancy companies, think tanks and independent experts. The aim of this article is to: (1) provide a general approach of the literature; (2) see how the effects of Brexit are explained in such short-term approach and how important are the economic issues in the debates; (3) identify directions for future research, arguing that a new field of study emerged. The estimation of economic impact of Brexit has generated a reach literature in a short period, which identifies the main issues, rather than providing strong results and conclusions. In order to fill this gap, our paper provide a systematic review of the most important contributions and group them in four research directions: overall economic implications of Brexit; Brexit and trade; migration and labour market; financial issues and Brexit.
The paper analyses the official use of international currencies as reserve currency (store of value) and anchor currency (unit of account). Examining the role as a reserve currency we note that the US dollar is the main reserve currency even if it recorded a decline given the decrease of the value of the US dollar reserve holdings and the gradual diversification of the currencies used. Since 2010, the euro's share decreased continuously may be due to the Eurozone crisis and the euro's depreciation against the US dollar. Then we show that the US dollar dominates as an anchor currency, though it was temporary abandoned during crisis time, having more than a regional dimension. At the same time, the use of the euro in exchange rate arrangements appears mainly in the regions that have close links with the euro area. Over the last few years, we have witnessed a gentle orientation towards a multimonetary world, especially regarding the use of the international currencies as reserve currency given the diversification of the currencies in which central banks understand to hold international reserves and the increasing share of the nontraditional currencies in total foreign exchange reserves.
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