We report on an observationally constrained analytical model, the INterplanetary Flux ROpe Simulator (INFROS), for predicting the magnetic-field vectors of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the interplanetary medium. The main architecture of INFROS involves using the near-Sun flux rope properties obtained from the observational parameters that are evolved through the model in order to estimate the magnetic field vectors of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) at any heliocentric distance. We have formulated a new approach in INFROS to incorporate the expanding nature and the time-varying axial magnetic field-strength of the flux rope during its passage over the spacecraft. As a proof of concept, we present the case study of an Earth-impacting CME which occurred on 2013 April 11. Using the near-Sun properties of the CME flux rope, we have estimated the magnetic vectors of the ICME as intersected by the spacecraft at 1 AU. The predicted magnetic field profiles of the ICME show good agreement with those observed by the in-situ spacecraft. Importantly, the maximum strength (10.5 ± 2.5 nT) of the southward component of the magnetic field (Bz) obtained from the model prediction, is in agreement with the observed value (11 nT). Although our model does not include the prediction of the ICME plasma parameters, as a first order approximation it shows promising results in forecasting of Bz in near real time which is critical for predicting the severity of the associated geomagnetic storms. This could prove to be a simple space-weather forecasting tool compared to the time-consuming and computationally expensive MHD models.

We investigate the morphological and magnetic characteristics of solar active region (AR) NOAA 12192. AR 12192 was the largest region of Solar Cycle 24; it underwent noticeable growth and produced 6 X-class flares, 22 M-class flares, and 53 C-class flares in the course of its disc passage. However, the most peculiar fact of this AR is that it was associated with only one CME in spite of producing several X-class flares. In this work, we carry out a comparative study between the eruptive and non-eruptive flares produced by AR 12192. We find that the magnitude of abrupt and permanent changes in the horizontal magnetic field and Lorentz force are significantly smaller in the case of the confined flares compared to the eruptive one. We present the areal evolution of AR 12192 during its disc passage. We find the flare-related morphological changes to be weaker during the confined flares, whereas the eruptive flare exhibits a rapid and permanent disappearance of penumbral area away from the magnetic neutral line after the flare. Furthermore, from the extrapolated nonlinear force-free magnetic field, we examine the overlying coronal magnetic environment over the eruptive and non-eruptive zones of the AR. We find that the critical decay index for the onset of torus instability was achieved at a lower height over the eruptive flaring region, than for the non-eruptive core area. These results suggest that the decay rate of the gradient of overlying magnetic field strength may play a decisive role to determine the CME productivity of the AR. In addition, the magnitude of changes in the flare-related magnetic characteristics are found to be well correlated with the nature of solar eruptions.