An Observationally Constrained Analytical Model for Predicting the Magnetic Field Vectors of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections at 1 au

Sarkar, Ranadeep; Gopalswamy, N.; Srivastava, Nandita

doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ab5fd7

Cited by 24 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…The nature of the interactions between the CME flux rope with the ambient solar wind and other CMEs depends strongly on the intrinsic magnetic structure of flux rope (e.g., Lugaz et al, 2013). The intrinsic flux rope properties can give early warning of the potential space weather consequences, but most importantly it provides critical information for constraining flux ropes in a variety of semiempirical and first-principle models describing the propagation and evolution of CMEs in the corona and heliosphere, such as ForeCAT and FIDO (Kay et al, 2013(Kay et al, , 2017, 3DCORE (Möstl et al, 2018), INFROS (Sarkar et al, 2020), Enlil (Odstrcil et al, 2004), EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA; Pomoell and Poedts, 2018), and SUSANOO-CME (Shiota and Kataoka, 2016). Although first-principle models are so-far routinely run with only cone-model CMEs for space weather forecasting purposes, for example EUHFORIA is now actively tested with magnetized CMEs to give improved predictions and more realistic information on the effect of CME interactions (Scolini et al, 2019(Scolini et al, , 2020Verbeke et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Magnetic Structure of an Erupting CME Flux Rope From AR12158 Using Data-Driven Modeling

Kilpua

Pomoell

Price³

et al. 2021

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

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We investigate here the magnetic properties of a large-scale magnetic flux rope related to a coronal mass ejection (CME) that erupted from the Sun on September 12, 2014 and produced a well-defined flux rope in interplanetary space on September 14–15, 2014. We apply a fully data-driven and time-dependent magnetofrictional method (TMFM) using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) magnetograms as the lower boundary condition. The simulation self-consistently produces a coherent flux rope and its ejection from the simulation domain. This paper describes the identification of the flux rope from the simulation data and defining its key parameters (e.g., twist and magnetic flux). We define the axial magnetic flux of the flux rope and the magnetic field time series from at the apex and at different distances from the apex of the flux rope. Our analysis shows that TMFM yields axial magnetic flux values that are in agreement with several observational proxies. The extracted magnetic field time series do not match well with in-situ components in direct comparison presumably due to interplanetary evolution and northward propagation of the CME. The study emphasizes also that magnetic field time-series are strongly dependent on how the flux rope is intercepted which presents a challenge for space weather forecasting.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Magnetic Structure of an Erupting CME Flux Rope From AR12158 Using Data-Driven Modeling

Kilpua

Pomoell

Price³

et al. 2021

Front. Astron. Space Sci.

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“…It is thus not possible to extract information for the magnetic flux of the CME using cotemporal magnetogram-based approaches (e.g. see Dissauer et al 2018a,b;Pal et al 2018;Dissauer et al 2019;Sarkar et al 2020). In this case, a base value of 80.0 × 10 12 Wb was used for the EUHFORIA runs, which represents the toroidal flux and is related to the magnetic field strength via equation 7 given in Verbeke et al (2019b).…”

Section: Magnetic Flux and Helicity Signmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling a multi-spacecraft coronal mass ejection encounter with EUHFORIA

Asvestari

Pomoell

Kilpua

et al. 2021

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Context. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are a manifestation of the Sun's eruptive nature. They can have a great impact on Earth, but also on human activity in space and on the ground. Therefore, modelling their evolution as they propagate through interplanetary space is essential. Aims. EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) is a data-driven, physics-based model, tracing the evolution of CMEs through background solar wind conditions. It employs a spheromak flux rope, which provides it with the advantage of reconstructing the internal magnetic field configuration of CMEs. This is something that is not included in the simpler cone CME model used so far for space weather forecasting. This work aims at assessing the spheromak CME model included in EUHFORIA. Methods. We employed the spheromak CME model to reconstruct a well observed CME and compare model output to in situ observations. We focus on an eruption from 6 January 2013 that was encountered by two radially aligned spacecraft, Venus Express and STEREO-A. We first analysed the observed properties of the source of this CME eruption and we extracted the CME properties as it lifted off from the Sun. Using this information, we set up EUHFORIA runs to model the event.Results. The model predicts arrival times from half to a full day ahead of the in situ observed ones, but within errors established from similar studies. In the modelling domain, the CME appears to be propagating primarily southward, which is in accordance with white-light images of the CME eruption close to the Sun. Conclusions. In order to get the observed magnetic field topology, we aimed at selecting a spheromak rotation angle for which the axis of symmetry of the spheromak is perpendicular to the direction of the polarity inversion line (PIL). The modelled magnetic field profiles, their amplitude, arrival times, and sheath region length are all affected by the choice of radius of the modelled spheromak.

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“…Seed electrons pose themselves a threat to satel-lites through surface charging (e.g. Garrett and Whittlesey, 2011;Sarno-Smith et al, 2016).…”

Section: Predictability Of Interplanetary Shocks and Energetic Particle Flux Enhancementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability of variable solar–terrestrial coupling

et al. 2021

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Abstract. In October 2017, the Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP) Bureau established a committee for the design of SCOSTEP's Next Scientific Programme (NSP). The NSP committee members and authors of this paper decided from the very beginning of their deliberations that the predictability of the Sun–Earth System from a few hours to centuries is a timely scientific topic, combining the interests of different topical communities in a relevant way. Accordingly, the NSP was christened PRESTO – PREdictability of the variable Solar–Terrestrial cOupling. This paper presents a detailed account of PRESTO; we show the key milestones of the PRESTO roadmap for the next 5 years, review the current state of the art and discuss future studies required for the most effective development of solar–terrestrial physics.

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An Observationally Constrained Analytical Model for Predicting the Magnetic Field Vectors of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections at 1 au

Cited by 24 publications

References 60 publications

Estimating the Magnetic Structure of an Erupting CME Flux Rope From AR12158 Using Data-Driven Modeling

Estimating the Magnetic Structure of an Erupting CME Flux Rope From AR12158 Using Data-Driven Modeling

Modelling a multi-spacecraft coronal mass ejection encounter with EUHFORIA

Predictability of variable solar–terrestrial coupling

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