The rainfall and runoff within a watershed area upper reservoir are necessary data for reservoir operation. In this manner, climate and land use changes are legitimately affected to inflow trademark into the reservoir storage. This investigation expects to appraise future inflow under the effect of atmosphere and land use changes of the Huay Sabag and Huay Ling Jone reservoirs, Thailand, during the period 2018–2067. The future inflow was evaluated by utilizing the SWAT model with the PRECIS territorial atmosphere model of B2 emanation situation, and considering land use information from the CA Markov model, both the balanced land use by support procedure type, and then unbalanced sort. Land use from CA Markov was adjusted by participation decides based on Taro Yamane table at the 90% of confidence. The outcome found that the normal precipitation and temperature were expanded in both upper store regions. The biggest land use change demonstrated the extension of the sugarcane and Para rubber tree, while paddy field and forest regions were diminished. The normal future inflows into the store under the two cases were expanded in examination with the watched information during the pattern year. However, the future inflow from the case of using CA Markov adjusting by participation process was higher than the future inflow from another case of using CA Markov without participation adjusting insignificantly for both reservoirs.

The aim of this research was to identify optimal choices in decision support systems for network reservoirs by using optimal rule curves under four scenarios related to water scarcity and overflow situations. These scenarios were normal water shortage, high water shortage, normal overflow and high overflow situations. The application of various optimization techniques, including Harris Hawks Optimization (HHO), Genetic Algorithm (GA), Wind-Driven Optimization (WDO) and the Marine Predator Algorithm (MPA), in conjunction with a reservoir simulation model, was conducted to produce alternative choices, leading to suitable decision-making options. The Bhumibol and Sirikit reservoirs, situated in Thailand, were selected as the case study for the network reservoir system. The objective functions for the search procedure were the minimal average water shortage per year, the minimal maximum water shortage and the minimal average water spill per year in relation to the main purpose of the reservoir system using the release criteria of the standard operating policy (SOP) and the hedging rule (HR). The best options of each scenario were chosen from 152 options of feasible solutions. The obtained results from the assessment of the effectiveness of alternative choices showed that the best option for normal water scarcity was the rule curve with the objective function of minimal average water shortage per year, using HR and recommended SOP for operation, whereas the best option for high-water shortage situation was the rule curves with objective function of minimal of maximum water shortage using HR and recommended HR for operation. For overflow situation, the best option for normal overflow situation was the rule curves with objective function of minimal average water spill per year using HR and the recommended SOP for operation, whereas the best option for the high overflow situation was the rule curve with the objective function of minimal average water spill per year using HR and the recommended HR for operation. When using the best curves according to the situation, this would result in a minimum water shortage of 153.789 MCM/year, the lowest maximum water shortage of 1338.00 MCM/year, minimum overflow of 978.404 MCM/year and the lowest maximum overflow of 7214.00 MCM/year. Finally, the obtained findings from this study would offer reliability and resiliency information for decision making in reservoir operation for the multi-reservoir system in the upper region of Thailand.

This paper reviews applications of optimization techniques connected with reservoir simulation models to search for optimal rule curves. The literature reporting the search for suitable reservoir rule curves is discussed and examined. The development of optimization techniques for searching processes are investigated by focusing on fitness function and constraints. There are five groups of optimization algorithms that have been applied to find the optimal reservoir rule curves: the trial and error technique with the reservoir simulation model, dynamic programing, heuristic algorithm, swarm algorithm, and evolutionary algorithm. The application of an optimization algorithm with the considered reservoirs is presented by focusing on its efficiency to alleviate downstream flood reduction and drought mitigation, which can be explored by researchers in wider studies. Finally, the appropriate future rule curves that are useful for future conditions are presented by focusing on climate and land use changes as well as the participation of stakeholders. In conclusion, this paper presents the suitable conditions for applying optimization techniques to search for optimal reservoir rule curves to be effectively applied in future reservoir operations.

This paper proposes the Marine Predators algorithm (MPA) linked with the reservoir simulation model and considering sedimentation, in order to improve reservoir rule curves. The release criteria of the hedging rule (HR) and standard operating policy (SOP) were investigated in this study. The results showed that the patterns of the new optimal rule curves from the MPA technique considering sedimentation and using HR were practically useful in this study, as were the patterns of the new optimal rule curves using SOP and those of the existing rule curves. Furthermore, the new optimal rule curves using HR criteria were able to alleviate both water scarcity and excess water situations better than both existing rule curves and optimal rule curves using SOP in terms of minimal average water shortage. The new curves reduced minimal average water shortage by 53% and excess release water deficit by 19%, whereas the frequency of water shortage term was increased by 3%. The results of rule curves efficiency from MPA were higher than GA and FPA techniques in terms of providing solutions. There was a significant difference in the efficiency of water problem alleviation between considering and not considering sedimentation. It can be concluded that the MPA linked with reservoir simulation using HR criteria and considering sedimentation can be used to find optimal rule curve solutions effectively.

Decision support systems tackle problems and require systematic planning. They consider physical data, hydrological data, and sediment levels to achieve efficiency and adaptability in various situations. Therefore, this research aims to identify alternative engineering choices for the management of a river basin with a single reservoir system. Optimization techniques, including marine predator algorithm (MPA), genetic algorithm (GA), genetic programming (GP), tabu search (TS), and flower pollination algorithm (FPA), were applied to find the optimal reservoir rule curves using a reservoir simulation model. The study focused on the Ubolratana Reservoir in Thailand’s Khon Kaen Province, considering historic inflow data, water demand, hydrologic and physical data, and sedimentation volume. Four scenarios were considered: normal water scarcity, high water scarcity, normal excess water, and high excess water. The optimal rule curves derived from the reservoir simulation model, incorporating sedimentation and hedging rule (HR) criteria, were found to be the best engineering choices. In the normal and high water scarcity scenarios, they minimized the average water shortage to 95.558 MCM/year, with the lowest maximum water shortage 693.000 MCM/year. Similarly, in the normal and high excess water scenarios, the optimal rule curves minimized the average excess water, resulting in a minimum overflow of 1087.810 MCM/year and the lowest maximum overflow 4105.660 MCM/year. These findings highlight the effectiveness of integrating optimization techniques and a reservoir simulation model to obtain the optimal rule curves. By considering sedimentation and incorporating HR criteria, the selected engineering alternatives demonstrated their ability to minimize water shortage and excess water. This contributes to improved water resource management and decision-making in situations of scarcity and excess.