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We test microgeographic (i.e., street segment) effects reflective of routine activities/lifestyle theories (e.g., the locations of sex offenders, gang members, drug houses, bars) and neighborhood-level (i.e., block group) effects consistent with social disorganization theory (e.g., socioeconomic disadvantage, residential mobility, racial heterogeneity) on the locations of sexual offenses within one rural and one suburban city. We employ multilevel modeling to examine neighborhood ( N = 41) and microgeographic ( N = 1,382) effects on sex offenses. Neighborhood context was associated with the locations of sex offenses in which disadvantage, concentrated poverty, racial heterogeneity, violent crime rates, and suburban (vs. rural) areas were positively associated with sex offense rates, whereas residential mobility had a negative effect on sex offense rates. Microgeographic context also explained variation in sex offense rates in which gang members, sex offenders, drug houses, and high population housing communities had positive effects on sexual assault rates, while controlling for spatially lagged effects. Finally, the effect of high-density housing communities was moderated by the level of disadvantage and racial heterogeneity. Neighborhood context and variables linked to exposure to crime operate differently in nonurban areas. Beyond considering community-based characteristics, contextual characteristics related to potential victims’ exposure to motivated offenders should focus on small spatial places.

The current study tests neighborhood (i.e., block group) effects reflective of broken windows theory (i.e., neighborhood, public space, social, housing disorder) on crime. Furthermore, these effects are tested independently on serious (i.e., Part I), and less serious (i.e., Part II) crime rates. Disorder data on a racially/ethnically stratified sample of block groups (N = 60) within Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S.A. were collected through systematic observations. Using these data, along with census and crime data, linear regression modeling was employed to test the effect of disorder measures on each crime outcome measure. Consistent with broken windows theory, disorder was associated with crime rates; however, the effect of disorder on crime was limited to the public space disorder measure. Furthermore, the effects of disorder on Part I crime rates were mediated by Part II offenses. Partial support was found for broken windows theory, in which neighborhood context had a greater effect on less serious offenses. Neighborhoods with increasing frequencies of disorder may benefit from bolstering partnerships between law enforcement officers, community members, and other local stakeholders with the aim of deterring offending at all levels, and consequently, decreasing indices of disorder and crime.

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