Objectives To develop a predictive model for preeclampsia based on clinical risk factors for nulliparous women and to identify a subgroup at increased risk, in whom specialist referral might be indicated. Design Prospective multicentre cohort. Setting Five centres in Auckland, New Zealand; Adelaide, Australia; Manchester and London, United Kingdom; and Cork, Republic of Ireland. Participants 3572 "healthy" nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy from a large international study; data on pregnancy outcome were available for 3529 (99%). Main outcome measure Pre-eclampsia defined as ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or both, on at least two occasions four hours apart after 20 weeks' gestation but before the onset of labour, or postpartum, with either proteinuria or any multisystem complication. Preterm pre-eclampsia was defined as women with pre-eclampsia delivered before 37 +0 weeks' gestation. In the stepwise logistic regression the comparison group was women without pre-eclampsia. Results Of the 3529 women, 186 (5.3%) developed preeclampsia, including 47 (1.3%) with preterm preeclampsia. Clinical risk factors at 14-16 weeks' gestation were age, mean arterial blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), family history of pre-eclampsia, family history of coronary heart disease, maternal birth weight, and vaginal bleeding for at least five days. Factors associated with reduced risk were a previous single miscarriage with the same partner, taking at least 12 months to conceive, high intake of fruit, cigarette smoking, and alcohol use in the first trimester. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), under internal validation, was 0.71. Addition of uterine artery Doppler indices did not improve performance (internal validation AUC 0.71). A framework for specialist referral was developed based on a probability of pre-eclampsia generated by the model of at least 15% or an abnormal uterine artery Doppler waveform in a subset of women with single risk factors.Nine per cent of nulliparous women would be referred for a specialist opinion, of whom 21% would develop preeclampsia. The relative risk for developing pre-eclampsia and preterm pre-eclampsia in women referred to a specialist compared with standard care was 5.5 and 12.2, respectively. Conclusions The ability to predict pre-eclampsia in healthy nulliparous women using clinical phenotype is modest and requires external validation in other populations. If validated, it could provide a personalised clinical risk profile for nulliparous women to which biomarkers could be added. Trial registration ACTRN12607000551493.

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Apoptosis is mediated by the caspase family of proteases that act as effectors of cell death by cleaving many cellular substrates. Caspase-2 is one of the most evolutionarily conserved caspases, yet its physiological function has remained enigmatic because caspase-2-deficient mice develop normally and are viable. We report here that the caspase-2 ؊/؊ mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) show increased proliferation. When transformed with E1A and Ras oncogenes, caspase-2 ؊/؊ MEFs grew significantly faster than caspase-2 ؉/؉ MEFs and formed more aggressive and accelerated tumors in nude mice. To assess whether the loss of caspase-2 predisposes animals to tumor development, we used the mouse E-Myc lymphoma model. Our findings suggest that loss of even a single allele of caspase-2 resulted in accelerated tumorigenesis, and this was further enhanced in caspase-2 ؊/؊ mice. The caspase-2 ؊/؊ cells showed resistance to apoptosis induced by chemotherapeutic drugs and DNA damage. Furthermore, caspase-2 ؊/؊ MEFs had a defective apoptotic response to cell-cycle checkpoint regulation and showed abnormal cycling following ␥-irradiation. These data show that loss of caspase-2 results in an increased ability of cells to acquire a transformed phenotype and become malignant, indicating that caspase-2 is a tumor suppressor protein.cell survival ͉ tumorigenesis ͉ cell cycle ͉ proliferation ͉ DNA damage

More than half of all cases of preeclampsia occur in healthy first-time pregnant women. Our aim was to develop a method to predict those at risk by combining clinical factors and measurements of biomarkers in women recruited to the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) study of low-risk nulliparous women. Forty-seven biomarkers identified on the basis of (1) association with preeclampsia, (2) a biological role in placentation, or (3) a role in cellular mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia were measured in plasma sampled at 14 to 16 weeks’ gestation from 5623 women. The cohort was randomly divided into training (n=3747) and validation (n=1876) cohorts. Preeclampsia developed in 278 (4.9%) women, of whom 28 (0.5%) developed early-onset preeclampsia. The final model for the prediction of preeclampsia included placental growth factor, mean arterial pressure, and body mass index at 14 to 16 weeks’ gestation, the consumption of ≥3 pieces of fruit per day, and mean uterine artery resistance index. The area under the receiver operator curve (95% confidence interval) for this model in training and validation cohorts was 0.73 (0.70–0.77) and 0.68 (0.63–0.74), respectively. A predictive model of early-onset preeclampsia included angiogenin/placental growth factor as a ratio, mean arterial pressure, any pregnancy loss <10 weeks, and mean uterine artery resistance index (area under the receiver operator curve [95% confidence interval] in training and validation cohorts, 0.89 [0.78–1.0] and 0.78 [0.58–0.99], respectively). Neither model included pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, previously reported to predict preeclampsia in populations of mixed parity and risk. In nulliparous women, combining multiple biomarkers and clinical data provided modest prediction of preeclampsia.

Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD) is a fatal, transmissible malignancy that threatens the world's largest marsupial carnivore, the Tasmanian devil, with extinction. First recognised in 1996, DFTD has had a catastrophic effect on wild devil numbers, and intense research efforts to understand and contain the disease have since demonstrated that the tumour is a clonal cell line transmitted by allograft. We used chromosome painting and gene mapping to deconstruct the DFTD karyotype and determine the chromosome and gene rearrangements involved in carcinogenesis. Chromosome painting on three different DFTD tumour strains determined the origins of marker chromosomes and provided a general overview of the rearrangement in DFTD karyotypes. Mapping of 105 BAC clones by fluorescence in situ hybridisation provided a finer level of resolution of genome rearrangements in DFTD strains. Our findings demonstrate that only limited regions of the genome, mainly chromosomes 1 and X, are rearranged in DFTD. Regions rearranged in DFTD are also highly rearranged between different marsupials. Differences between strains are limited, reflecting the unusually stable nature of DFTD. Finally, our detailed maps of both the devil and tumour karyotypes provide a physical framework for future genomic investigations into DFTD.