In this study, we examine the relationship between housing prices and its macroeconomic determinants in the Turkish economy over the period 2010-2020. The ARDL bounds testing to cointegration and Granger Causality test procedures are employed in the empirical part of the study. The empirical results show that there is a significant negative relationship between housing interest rates and housing prices. Besides, it was observed that the appreciation of the US dollar against the Turkish Lira and the increase in the employment level had an increasing effect on housing prices. As a result of our research, we conclude that country-specific facts affect the macroeconomic determinants’ ability to explain the changes in housing prices.
The aim of the study is to investigate the relationship between domestic public debt and financial development for the Turkish economy between 2002Q1-2012Q2. The previous panel data studies for developing countries suggest two main approaches. One view asserts a positive relationship between them while the other view asserts a negative relationship. Our results which are based on time-series analysis support the second view which advocates the negative relationship between domestic indebtedness and financial development. On the other hand we criticize the generalization of the results provided by other studies. According to our view each country may have different responses against the changes in domestic public debt due to its own specific economic and financial condition.
The S-curve is used to describe the dynamic relation between terms of trade and trade balance. As a result of previous works the S-curve relation was obtained for some developed and developing countries within the framework of their trade with the rest of the world. On the other hand for some countries this relationship is weak or there is no relationship. The possibility of "aggregation bias" problem of the previous works leads researchers to a make the same analysis at bilateral and industry level. In our work this relationship is investigated for Turkey at aggregate level with the rest of the world, with the developing and developed countries and at the bilateral level with the 20 important trade partners for the 2003Q1-2012Q4 period. The results of our analysis for Turkey show that there is a weak S-curve relation with the rest of the world and with the developing countries. On the other hand the relation is strong with the developed countries. At the bilateral level there is a strong S-curve relation in 14 out of 20 cases.
This study investigates the relationship between industrial employment and producer price index-based real effective exchange rate, over the period 2009M01-2019M10, by employing the autoregressive distributed lag cointegration procedure, for the Turkish economy. The empirical findings support the existence of a positive relationship between the appreciation of the producer price index-based real effective exchange rate and an increase in industrial employment. Accordingly, a 1% appreciation of the producer price index-based real effective exchange rate leads to a 0.092% increase in industrial employment. This finding supports the dominance of the "imported input" channel over the other transmission channels for Turkey at the industry level.
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