With data collected by Internet of Things sensors, deep learning (DL) models can forecast the generation capacity of photovoltaic (PV) power plants. This functionality is especially relevant for PV power operators and users as PV plants exhibit irregular behavior related to environmental conditions. However, DL models are vulnerable to adversarial examples, which may lead to increased predictive error and wrong operational decisions. This work proposes a new scheme to detect adversarial examples and mitigate their impact on DL forecasting models. This approach is based on one-class classifiers and features extracted from the data inputted to the forecasting models. Tests were performed using data collected from a real-world PV power plant along with adversarial samples generated by the Fast Gradient Sign Method under multiple attack patterns and magnitudes. One-class Support Vector Machine and Local Outlier Factor were evaluated as detectors of attacks to Long-Short Term Memory and Temporal Convolutional Network forecasting models. According to the results, the proposed scheme showed a high capability of detecting adversarial samples with an average F1-score close to 90%. Moreover, the detection and mitigation approach strongly reduced the prediction error increase caused by adversarial samples.

A wide range of applications based on sequential data, named time series, have become increasingly popular in recent years, mainly those based on the Internet of Things (IoT). Several different machine learning algorithms exploit the patterns extracted from sequential data to support multiple tasks. However, this data can suffer from unreliable readings that can lead to low accuracy models due to the low-quality training sets available. Detecting the change point between high representative segments is an important ally to find and thread biased subsequences. By constructing a framework based on the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test for data stationarity, two proposals to automatically segment subsequences in a time series were developed. The former proposal, called Change Detector segmentation, relies on change detection methods of data stream mining. The latter, called ADF-based segmentation, is constructed on a new change detector derived from the ADF test only. Experiments over real-file IoT databases and benchmarks showed the improvement provided by our proposals for prediction tasks with traditional Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Deep Learning (Long short-term memory and Temporal Convolutional Networks) methods. Results obtained by the Long short-term memory predictive model reduced the relative prediction error from 1 to 0.67, compared to time series without segmentation.

No abstract

No abstract