The primary objective of a phase II clinical trial of a new drug or regimen is to determine whether it has sufficient biological activity against the disease under study to warrant more extensive development. Such trials are often conducted in a multiinstitution setting where designs of more than two stages are difficult to manage. This paper presents two-stage designs that are optimal in the sense that the expected sample size is minimized if the regimen has low activity subject to constraints upon the size of the type 1 and type 2 errors. Two-stage designs which minimize the maximum sample size are also determined. Optimum and "minimax" designs for a range of design parameters are tabulated. These designs can also be used for pilot studies of new regimens where toxicity is the endpoint of interest.

We describe the use of cubic splines in regression models to represent the relationship between the response variable and a vector of covariates. This simple method can help prevent the problems that result from inappropriate linearity assumptions. We compare restricted cubic spline regression to non‐parametric procedures for characterizing the relationship between age and survival in the Stanford Heart Transplant data. We also provide an illustrative example in cancer therapeutics.

In controlled clinical trials there are usually several prognostic factors known or thought to influence the patient's ability to respond to treatment. Therefore, the method of sequential treatment assignment needs to be designed so that treatment balance is simultaneously achieved across all such patients factor. Traditional methods of restricted randomization such as "permuted blocks within strata" prove inadequate once the number of strata, or combinations of factor levels, approaches the sample size. A new general procedure for treatment assignment is described which concentrates on minimizing imbalance in the distributions of treatment numbers within the levels of each individual prognostic factor. The improved treatment balance obtained by this approach is explored using simulation for a simple model of a clinical trial. Further discussion centers on the selection, predictability and practicability of such a procedure.

Importance Targeted magnetic resonance (MR)/ultrasound fusion prostate biopsy has been shown to detect prostate cancer. The implications of targeted biopsy alone vs standard extended-sextant biopsy or the 2 modalities combined are not well understood. Objective To assess targeted vs standard biopsy and the 2 approaches combined for the diagnosis of intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer. Design, Setting, And Participants Prospective cohort study of 1003 men undergoing both targeted and standard biopsy concurrently from 2007 through 2014 at the National Cancer Institute in the United States. Patients were referred for elevated level of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or abnormal digital rectal examination results, often with prior negative biopsy results. Risk categorization was compared among targeted and standard biopsy and, when available, whole-gland pathology after prostatectomy as the “gold standard.” Interventions Patients underwent multiparametric prostate magnetic resonance imaging to identify regions of prostate cancer suspicion followed by targeted MR/ultrasound fusion biopsy and concurrent standard biopsy. Main Outcomes And Measures The primary objective was to compare targeted and standard biopsy approaches for detection of high-risk prostate cancer (Gleason score ≥4 + 3); secondary end points focused on detection of low-risk prostate cancer (Gleason score 3 + 3 or low-volume 3 + 4) and the biopsy ability to predict whole-gland pathology at prostatectomy. Results Targeted MR/ultrasound fusion biopsy diagnosed 461 prostate cancer cases, and standard biopsy diagnosed 469 cases. There was exact agreement between targeted and standard biopsy in 690 men (69%) undergoing biopsy. Targeted biopsy diagnosed 30% more high-risk cancers vs standard biopsy (173 vs 122 cases, P < .001) and 17% fewer low-risk cancers (213 vs 258 cases, P < .001). When standard biopsy cores were combined with the targeted approach, an additional 103 cases (22%) of mostly low-risk prostate cancer were diagnosed (83% low risk, 12% intermediate risk, and 5% high risk). The predictive ability of targeted biopsy for differentiating low-risk from intermediate- and high-risk disease in 170 men with whole-gland pathology after prostatectomy was greater than that of standard biopsy or the 2 approaches combined (area under the curve, 0.73, 0.59, and 0.67, respectively; P < .05 for all comparisons). Conclusions and Relevance Among men undergoing biopsy for suspected prostate cancer, targeted MR/ultrasound fusion biopsy, compared with standard extended-sextant ultrasound-guided biopsy, was associated with increased detection of high-risk prostate cancer and decreased detection of low-risk prostate cancer. Future studies will be needed to assess the ultimate clinical implications of targeted biopsy. Trial Registration clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00102544