Globalization has brought not only advantages but also risks into the supply chains. One lesser studied risk is the effect of consumer behavior in crises. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has shown that the most efficient and optimized supply chains are susceptible to consumer panic buying. There is a severe need to understand the multitude of scenarios that could manifest after a catastrophe due to the change in consumer behavior so that businesses can develop a mitigation plan. The authors have developed an agent-based model that can simulate the various outcomes of a crisis using a consumer panic buying model and a supply chain model. The model quantitatively evaluates the panic purchase intention of a consumer while assessing the impact of panic buying on the supply chain. This paper introduces the implementation of the model, focusing on output analysis of the various situational settings in disaster aftermath. Preliminary study has revealed that implementing quota policy or rationing uniformly is very effective while controlling media reports or panic buying consumers can reduce consumer demand significantly.

The present paper is an effort to introduce the modeling architecture of analyzing the response of a supply chain of bottled water due to consumer panic buying triggered by a large-scale natural disaster. An agent-based system is used to model a simplistic consumer purchase model and a supply chain model. Disaster prompts panic buying among the consumers, which disturbs the supply chain. The strategies used to control the excess demand such as limiting sales per person is considered to understand the effect on the supply chain. A preliminary study of the response of the supply chain due to the disaster and its consequences are presented in this paper.

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