Many prediction tasks contain uncertainty. In some cases, uncertainty is inherent in the task itself. In future prediction, for example, many distinct outcomes are equally valid. In other cases, uncertainty arises from the way data is labeled. For example, in object detection, many objects of interest often go unlabeled, and in human pose estimation, occluded joints are often labeled with ambiguous values. In this work we focus on a principled approach for handling such scenarios. In particular, we propose a framework for reformulating existing single-prediction models as multiple hypothesis prediction (MHP) models and an associated meta loss and optimization procedure to train them. To demonstrate our approach, we consider four diverse applications: human pose estimation, future prediction, image classification and segmentation. We find that MHP models outperform their single-hypothesis counterparts in all cases, and that MHP models simultaneously expose valuable insights into the variability of predictions.

We apply recurrent neural networks to the task of recognizing surgical activities from robot kinematics. Prior work in this area focuses on recognizing short, low-level activities, or gestures, and has been based on variants of hidden Markov models and conditional random fields. In contrast, we work on recognizing both gestures and longer, higher-level activites, or maneuvers, and we model the mapping from kinematics to gestures/maneuvers with recurrent neural networks. To our knowledge, we are the first to apply recurrent neural networks to this task. Using a single model and a single set of hyperparameters, we match state-of-the-art performance for gesture recognition and advance state-of-the-art performance for maneuver recognition, in terms of both accuracy and edit distance. Code is available at https://github.com/ rdipietro/miccai-2016-surgical-activity-rec.

One-shot pose estimation for tasks such as body joint localization, camera pose estimation, and object tracking are generally noisy, and temporal filters have been extensively used for regularization. One of the most widely-used methods is the Kalman filter, which is both extremely simple and general. However, Kalman filters require a motion model and measurement model to be specified a priori, which burdens the modeler and simultaneously demands that we use explicit models that are often only crude approximations of reality. For example, in the pose-estimation tasks mentioned above, it is common to use motion models that assume constant velocity or constant acceleration, and we believe that these simplified representations are severely inhibitive. In this work, we propose to instead learn rich, dynamic representations of the motion and noise models. In particular, we propose learning these models from data using long shortterm memory, which allows representations that depend on all previous observations and all previous states. We evaluate our method using three of the most popular pose estimation tasks in computer vision, and in all cases we obtain state-of-the-art performance.

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