Summary: 1. Introduction; 2. Data set; 3. Cycles; 4. The standard growth model; 5. The indivisible labor model; 6. Findings from simulation; 7. Conclusions. Key words: real business cycles; aggregate fluctuations; technology shocks. JEL codes: E32 and O41. This paper documents the empirical relationship in postwar Brazil between the GNP and other key variables such as consumption, investment, productivity and hours worked. Since many of those series were not available to Brazil we also had to build a data-set, which includes consumption of non-durables, capital and hours worked. We use two filters to extract the cycles (the usual Hodrick-Prescott filter and a band-pass filter); this procedure was taken to avoid conclusions that depend too much on the filter in use. The paper also provides simulations of two dynamic general equilibrium models (the standard RBC model and the indivisible labor model) and tries to match the facts of the artificial economy with those of the actual economy. We show that the basic models fail to replicate some of the observed facts.Este artigo documenta as relações entre o PNB e outras variáveis macroeconômicas, tais como: consumo, investimento, produtividade e horas trabalhadas, observadas no Brasil. Desde que muitas destas séries não estavam disponíveis construímos uma base de dados que inclui consumo de não-duráveis, capital e horas trabalhadas. Para extrair o ciclo utilizamos dois filtros (o filtro Hodrick-Prescott e um filtro do tipo band-pass); este procediment foi tomado para evitar conclusões que dependessem do filtro utilizado. O artigo também apresenta simulações de dois modelos de equilíbrio geral dinâmico (o modelo básico de ciclos reais e o modelo com trabalho indiviível) e compara os fatos gerado pelos modelos com os observados para a economia brasileira. Este exercício mostra que os modelos utilizados não são capazes de reproduzir alguns dos fatos observados.

ResumoEste trabalho busca verificar a existência de convergência entre a renda per capita dos estados brasileiros bem como calcular a velocidade em que este processo ocorre. Para isto utilizamos dados da FIBGE e estimativas próprias dos PIB estadu ais. A metodologia de estimação segue Barro e Sala-i-Martin (1992b) que estudam a velocidade de convergência dos estados americanos. Nossos resultados confirmam a hipótese de convergência para o Brasil ffi

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The present study aims to analyze the empirical as well as theoretical implications related to the possible inconsistencies between the Brazilian capital stock estimate and its associated investment decision. The common practice of using the country's accumulated (depreciated) fixed capital formation data as a proxy for the capital stock series generates a set of incompatible facts with dynamic models built on balanced growth and on aggregate production functions. Moreover, a related issue on the Brazilian capital income is considered in our analysis. According to the country's National Accounts, the participation of capital income reaches about half of the aggregate income which is an unusual high share compared to international standards. It is shown that this problem can also be solved using alternative methods that lead to a more suitable capital stock series to be used in recursive equilibrium models. Finally, the long-run impacts of using the proposed capital stock series is studied using a modified basic growth model calibrated to reproduce some Brazilian empirical facts.

The uncovered interest parity (UIP) test for Brazil is presented from the standpoint of rational expectations hypothesis. The period is January 1984 to October 1998. The econometric tests validate the UIP just for the sub-period January 1990 to June 1994. The result suggests fail with the UIP in the Real Plan, validating the theoretical point proposed by Krasker.