Coral reefs face multiple anthropogenic threats, from pollution and overfishing to the dual effects of greenhouse gas emissions: rising sea temperature and ocean acidification. While the abundance of coral has declined in recent decades, the implications for humanity are difficult to quantify because they depend on ecosystem function rather than the corals themselves. Most reef functions and ecosystem services are founded on the ability of reefs to maintain their three-dimensional structure through net carbonate accumulation. Coral growth only constitutes part of a reef's carbonate budget; bioerosion processes are influential in determining the balance between net structural growth and disintegration. Here, we combine ecological models with carbonate budgets and drive the dynamics of Caribbean reefs with the latest generation of climate models. Budget reconstructions using documented ecological perturbations drive shallow (6-10 m) Caribbean forereefs toward an increasingly fragile carbonate balance. We then projected carbonate budgets toward 2080 and contrasted the benefits of local conservation and global action on climate change. Local management of fisheries (specifically, no-take marine reserves) and the watershed can delay reef loss by at least a decade under "business-as-usual" rises in greenhouse gas emissions. However, local action must be combined with a low-carbon economy to prevent degradation of reef structures and associated ecosystem services.

Elevated temperature (28-WC) has been hypothesized as the primary cause of the loss of algal endosymbionts in coral reef-associated invertebrates, a phenomenon observed on a world-wide scale over the last decade. In past studies of this "bleaching" phenomenon, there has been an underlying assumption that temperature adversely affects the animal hosts, the algae thereby being relegated to a more passive role. Because photosynthesis is a sensitive indicator of thermal stress in plants and has a central role in the nutrition of symbiotic invertebrates, we have tested the hypothesis that elevated temperature adversely affects photosynthesis in the symbiotic dinoagellate Symbiodinium microadriaicum. The results, based on analyses of light-mediated 02 evolution and in vivo fluorescence, indicate that photosynthesis is impaired at temperatures above 30°C and ceases completely at 34-36WC. These observations are discussed in the context of possible mechanisms that may function in the disaciation of alglinvertebrate symbioses in response to elevated temperature.

Colonies of the Caribbean coral Montastraea cavernosa (Linnaeus) that harbor endosymbiotic cyanobacteria can fix nitrogen, whereas conspecifics without these symbionts cannot. The pattern of nitrogen fixation is diurnal and maximum rates occur in the early morning and evening. An analysis of δ 15 N stable isotope data showed that the zooxanthellae, but not the animal tissue, from colonies with cyanobacteria preferentially use the products derived from nitrogen fixation, and that these zooxanthellae also have a greater DNA content per cell, suggesting that these cells are in the DNA synthesis (S) and gap (G 2 ) + mitosis (M) phase of their cell cyle and are preparing to undergo cell division. Since nitrogen fixation did not occur during those times of the day when hyperoxia is known to occur, low oxygen concentrations might be required to support cyanobacterial respiration and provide the energy needed to fix nitrogen because the reaction centers of these cyanobacteria are uncoupled from light harvesting accessory pigments and the photosynthetic electron transport chain. Consistent with this were the depleted δ 13 C stable isotope signatures in all compartments of those corals with symbiotic cyanobacteria, which show an increase in heterotrophy compared with samples of M. cavernosa without cyanobacteria. Using modeled underwater light fields and measurements of photosynthesis, we show that the amount of time in which nitrogen fixation in these corals can take place increases with depth and that the distribution of corals with symbiotic cyanobacteria is positively correlated with increasing depth. The results presented here show that the zooxanthellae of M. cavernosa acquire nitrogen from cyanobacterial nitrogen fixation. Given that nitrogen limitation has long been proposed to contribute to the stability of these symbiotic associations, the mechanism by which zooxanthellae symbiosis in these corals is maintained remains an important question and the subject of future study.

Rising sea temperatures cause mass coral bleaching and threaten reefs worldwide. We show how maps of variations in thermal stress can be used to help manage reefs for climate change. We map proxies of chronic and acute thermal stress and develop evidence-based hypotheses for the future response of corals to each stress regime. We then incorporate spatially realistic predictions of larval connectivity among reefs of the Bahamas and apply novel reserve design algorithms to create reserve networks for a changing climate. We show that scales of larval dispersal are large enough to connect reefs from desirable thermal stress regimes into a reserve network. Critically, we find that reserve designs differ according to the anticipated scope for phenotypic and genetic adaptation in corals, which remains uncertain. Attempts to provide a complete reserve design that hedged against different evolutionary outcomes achieved limited success, which emphasises the importance of considering the scope for adaptation explicitly. Nonetheless, 15% of reserve locations were selected under all evolutionary scenarios, making them a high priority for early designation. Our approach allows new insights into coral holobiont adaptation to be integrated directly into an adaptive approach to management.

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