Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well-characterized1-7 but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here, based on analyses of 9,604 hemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000–2012, we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses. While genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast (E-SE) Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across multiple seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with E-SE Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as likely drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology and human behavior.

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The haemagglutinin (HA) glycoproteins of influenza virus membranes are responsible for binding viruses to cells by interacting with membrane receptor molecules which contain sialic acid (for review see ref. 1). This interaction is known to vary in detailed specificity for different influenza viruses (see, for example, refs 2-4) and we have attempted to identify the sialic acid binding site of the haemagglutinin by comparing the amino acid sequences of haemagglutinins with different binding specificities. We present here evidence that haemagglutinins which differ in recognizing either NeuAc alpha 2 leads to 3Gal- or NeuAc alpha 2 leads to 6Gal- linkages in glycoproteins also differ at amino acid 226 of HA1. This residue is located in a pocket on the distal tip of the molecule, an area previously proposed from considerations of the three-dimensional structure of the haemagglutinin to be involved in receptor binding.

The hemagglutinin (HA) of influenza A(H3N2) virus responsible for the 1968 influenza pandemic derived from an avian virus. On introduction into humans, its receptor binding properties had changed from a preference for avian receptors (α2,3-linked sialic acid) to a preference for human receptors (α2,6-linked sialic acid). By 2001, the avidity of human H3 viruses for avian receptors had declined, and since then the affinity for human receptors has also decreased significantly. These changes in receptor binding, which correlate with increased difficulties in virus propagation in vitro and in antigenic analysis, have been assessed by virus hemagglutination of erythrocytes from different species and quantified by measuring virus binding to receptor analogs using surface biolayer interferometry. Crystal structures of HA–receptor analog complexes formed with HAs from viruses isolated in 2004 and 2005 reveal significant differences in the conformation of the 220-loop of HA1, relative to the 1968 structure, resulting in altered interactions between the HA and the receptor analog that explain the changes in receptor affinity. Site-specific mutagenesis shows the HA1 Asp-225→Asn substitution to be the key determinant of the decreased receptor binding in viruses circulating since 2005. Our results indicate that the evolution of human influenza A(H3N2) viruses since 1968 has produced a virus with a low propensity to bind human receptor analogs, and this loss of avidity correlates with the marked reduction in A(H3N2) virus disease impact in the last 10 y.

Of the 132 people known to have been infected with H7N9 influenza viruses in China, 37 died, and many were severely ill. Infection seems to have involved contact with infected poultry. We have examined the receptor-binding properties of this H7N9 virus and compared them with those of an avian H7N3 virus. We find that the human H7 virus has significantly higher affinity for α-2,6-linked sialic acid analogues ('human receptor') than avian H7 while retaining the strong binding to α-2,3-linked sialic acid analogues ('avian receptor') characteristic of avian viruses. The human H7 virus does not, therefore, have the preference for human versus avian receptors characteristic of pandemic viruses. X-ray crystallography of the receptor-binding protein, haemagglutinin (HA), in complex with receptor analogues indicates that both human and avian receptors adopt different conformations when bound to human H7 HA than they do when bound to avian H7 HA. Human receptor bound to human H7 HA exits the binding site in a different direction to that seen in complexes formed by HAs from pandemic viruses and from an aerosol-transmissible H5 mutant. The human-receptor-binding properties of human H7 probably arise from the introduction of two bulky hydrophobic residues by the substitutions Gln226Leu and Gly186Val. The former is shared with the 1957 H2 and 1968 H3 pandemic viruses and with the aerosol-transmissible H5 mutant. We conclude that the human H7 virus has acquired some of the receptor-binding characteristics that are typical of pandemic viruses, but its retained preference for avian receptor may restrict its further evolution towards a virus that could transmit efficiently between humans, perhaps by binding to avian-receptor-rich mucins in the human respiratory tract rather than to cellular receptors.