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It has been hypothesized that global warming will strengthen upwelling-favorable winds in the Northern Humboldt Current System (NHCS) as a consequence of the increase of the land-sea thermal gradient along the Peruvian coast. The effect of strengthened winds in this region is assessed with the use of a coupled physical-biogeochemical model forced with projected and climatological winds. Strengthened winds induce an increase in primary production of 2% per latitudinal degree from 9.5°S to 5°S. In some important coastal upwelling sites primary production is reduced. This is due to a complex balance between nutrient availability, nutrient use efficiency, as well as eddy- and wind-driven factors. Mesoscale activity induces a net offshore transport of inorganic nutrients, thus reducing primary production in the coastal upwelling region. Wind mixing, in general disadvantageous for primary producers, leads to shorter residence times in the southern and central coastal zones. Overall, instead of a proportional enhancement in primary production due to increased winds, the NHCS becomes only 5% more productive (+5 mol C m year ), 10% less limited by nutrients and 15% less efficient due to eddy-driven effects. It is found that regions with a initial strong nutrient limitation are more efficient in terms of nutrient assimilation which makes them more resilient in face of the acceleration of the upwelling circulation.

During the last 4 decades punctual occurrences of extreme ocean temperatures, known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), have been regularly disrupting the coastal ecosystem of the Peru-Chile eastern boundary upwelling system. In fact, this coastal system and biodiversity hot-spot is regularly impacted by El Niño events, whose variability has been related to the longest and most intense MHWs in the world ocean. However the intensively studied El Niños tend to overshadow the MHWs of shorter duration that are significantly more common in the region. Using sea surface temperature data from 1982 to 2019 we investigate the characteristics and evolution of MHWs, distinguishing events by duration. Results show that long duration MHWs (> 100 days) preferentially affect the coastal domain north of 15° S and have decreased in both occurrence and intensity in the last four decades. On the other hand, shorter events, which represent more than 90% of all the observed MHWs, are more common south of 15° S and show an increase in their thermal impact as well as on the number of affected days, particularly those spanning 30–100 days. We also show that long duration MHWs variability in the coastal domain is well correlated with the remote equatorial variability while the onset of short events (< 10 days) generally goes along with a relaxation of the local coastal wind.

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