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Time series pattern discovery is of great importance in a large variety of environmental and engineering applications, from supporting predictive models to helping to understand hidden underlying processes. This work develops a multiresolution time series method for extracting patterns in weather records, particular temperature data. The topic is important, as, given a warming climate, morbidity and mortality are expected to rise as heatwave frequency and intensity increase. By analysing summer temperature quantiles at different levels of coarseness, it was found that compounding models can contain a complete description of severe weather events. This new multiresolution quantile approach is developed as an extension of the symbolic aggregate approximation of the temperature time series in which quantiles are computed at every stretch of the piecewise partition. The process is iterated at different scales of the partition, and it was found to be a very useful approach for finding patterns related to both heatwave periods and intensities. The method is successfully tested using real weather records from Brazil (Recife) and the UK (London), and it was found that in both locations heatwave intensity and frequency are increasing at a substantial rate. In addition, it was found that the rate of increase in intensity of the heatwaves is far outstripping the rate of increase in mean summer temperature: by a factor of 2 in Recife and a factor of 6 in London. The approach will be of use to those looking at the impact of future climates on civil engineering, water resources, energy use, agriculture and health care, or those looking for sustained extreme events in any time series.

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Abstract:The Jucazinho reservoir was built in the State of Pernambuco, Northeastern Brazil, to water supply in a great part of the population that live in the semi-arid of Pernambuco. This reservoir controls the high part of Capibaribe river basin, area affected several actions that can compromise the reservoir water quality such as disposal of domestic sewage, industrial wastewater and agriculture with use of fertilizers. This study aimed to identify the factors that lead to water quality of the Jucazinho reservoir using a database containing information of nine years of reservoir water quality monitoring in line with a multivariate statistical technique known as Principal Component Analysis (PCA). To use this technique, it was selected two components which determine the quality of the reservoir water. The first principal component, ranging from an annual basis, explained the relationship between the development of cyanobacteria, the concentration of dissolved solids and electrical conductivity, comparing it with the variation in the dam volume, total phosphorus levels and turbidity. The second principal component, ranging from a mensal basis, explained the photosynthetic activity performed by cyanobacteria confronting with the variation in the dam volume. It observed the relationship between water quality parameters with rainfall, featuring an annual and seasonal pattern that can be used as reference to behaviour studies of this reservoir.

This article suggests the application of multiresolution analysis by Wavelet Transform-WT and Echo State Networks-ESN for the development of tools capable of providing wind speed and power generation forecasting. The models were developed to forecast the hourly mean wind speeds, which are applied to the wind turbine's power curve to obtain wind power forecasts with horizons ranging from 1 to 24 h ahead, for three different locations of the Brazilian Northeast. The average improvement of Normalized Mean Absolute Error-NMAE for the first six, twelve, eighteen and twenty-four hourly power generation forecasts obtained by using the models proposed in this article were 70.87%, 71.99%, 67.77% and 58.52%, respectively. These results of improvements in relation to the Persistence Model-PM are among the best published results to date for wind power forecasting. The adopted methodology was adequate, assuring statistically reliable forecasts. When comparing the performance of fully-connected feedforward Artificial Neural Networks-ANN and ESN, it was observed that both are powerful time series forecasting tools, but the ESN proved to be more suited for wind power forecasting.