Solar flares originate from the release of the energy stored in the magnetic field of solar active regions, the triggering mechanism for these flares, however, remains unknown. For this reason, the conventional solar flare forecast is essentially based on the statistic relationship between solar flares and measures extracted from observational data. In the current work, the deep learning method is applied to set up the solar flare forecasting model, in which forecasting patterns can be learned from line-of-sight magnetograms of solar active regions. In order to obtain a large amount of observational data to train the forecasting model and test its performance, a data set is created from line-of-sight magnetogarms of active regions observed by SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI from 1996 April to 2015 October and corresponding soft X-ray solar flares observed by GOES. The testing results of the forecasting model indicate that (1) the forecasting patterns can be automatically reached with the MDI data and they can also be applied to the HMI data; furthermore, these forecasting patterns are robust to the noise in the observational data; (2) the performance of the deep learning forecasting model is not sensitive to the given forecasting periods (6, 12, 24, or 48 hr); (3) the performance of the proposed forecasting model is comparable to that of the state-of-the-art flare forecasting models, even if the duration of the total magnetograms continuously spans 19.5 years. Case analyses demonstrate that the deep learning based solar flare forecasting model pays attention to areas with the magnetic polarity-inversion line or the strong magnetic field in magnetograms of active regions.
S-functionalized V2C (V2CS2) was designed and the properties of it act as anchoring material for Li–S batteries' cathode were investigated by first-principles calculations. Compared with bare V2C and V2CO2, V2CS2 is more suitable as anchoring material.
A method combining the support vector machine (SVM) the K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), labelled the SVM-KNN method, is used to construct a solar flare forecasting model. Based on a proven relationship between SVM and KNN, the SVM-KNN method improves the SVM algorithm of classification by taking advantage of the KNN algorithm according to the distribution of test samples in a feature space. In our flare forecast study, sunspots and 10 cm radio flux data observed during Solar Cycle 23 are taken as predictors, and whether an M class flare will occur for each active region within two days will be predicted. The SVM-KNN method is compared with the SVM and Neural networks-based method. The test results indicate that the rate of correct predictions from the SVM-KNN method is higher than that from the other two methods. This method shows promise as a practicable future forecasting model.
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