No abstract

Purpose – This paper aims to use Markov switching vector auto regression (MSVAR) methods to examine UK house price cycles in UK regions at NUTS1 level. There is extensive literature on UK regional house price dynamics, yet empirical work focusing on the duration and magnitude of regional housing cycles has received little attention. The research findings indicate that the regional structure of UK exhibits that UK house price changes are best described as two large groups of regions with marked differences in the amplitude and duration of the cyclical regimes between the two groups. Design/methodology/approach – MSVAR principal component analysis NUTS1 data are used. Findings – The housing cycles can be divided into two super regions based on magnitude, duration and the way they behave during recession, boom and sluggish periods. A north-south divide, a uniform housing policy and a monetary policy increase the diversion among the regions. Research limitations/implications – Markov switching needs high-frequency data and long time spans. Practical implications – Questions a uniform housing policy in a heterogeneous housing market. Questions the impact of monetary policy on a heterogeneous housing market. The way the recovery of the housing market varies among regions depends on regional economic performance, housing market structure and the labour market. House price convergence, beta-convergence. Originality/value – No such work has been done looking at duration and magnitude of regional housing cycles. A new econometric method was used.

The effects of structural breaks in dynamic panels are more complicated than in time series models as the bias can be either negative or positive. This paper focuses on the effects of mean shifts in otherwise stationary processes within an instrumental variable panel estimation framework. We show the sources of the bias and a Monte Carlo analysis calibrated on United States bank lending data demonstrates the size of the bias for a range of auto-regressive parameters. We also propose additional moment conditions that can be used to reduce the biases caused by shifts in the mean of the data. Economic Studies, University of Dundee, email: brussell@brolga.net. We thank Arnab Bhattacharjee, Hassan Molana and Dennis Petrie for their insightful comments. We also thank Tom Doan for making available his Bai-Perron programmes.

Banks play a defining role in translating monetary policy shocks to pull or push‐effects in the housing market. The literature is ambiguous on the exact role of bank lending channel (BLC) in translating such effects into either moderation or acceleration of dynamics in the housing market. This paper argues that monetary policy shocks, of the same magnitude, can have asymmetric implications for a housing market via a state dependent BLC, particularly during expansion and recessionary phases of the business cycle. We test this hypothesis for the UK housing sector using a long quarterly data (1973Q1‐2015Q4) and employing Markov Switching Vector Auto Regression (MSVAR) models. Our results show that the magnitude of the bank lending channel is contingent upon the state of the economy, with a one standard deviation expansionary monetary policy shock producing a significant effect only in normal economic times. Further study on whether large cuts in policy rates could stimulate mortgage lending and whether there is impact asymmetry to dissimilar expansionary monetary policy shocks during financial crisis, we show that a sharp cut in policy rate indeed stimulates the BLC greater compared to smaller expansionary money policy shocks during recessions.